北极东北航道经济性及未来发展趋势分析  

An Analysis of Economic and Future Development of Arctic Northeast Passage

作　　者：蔡梅江 曹伟[3,4] 胡冰 CAI Meijiang;CAO Wei;HU Bing(China Shipping&Sinopec Suppliers Corporation Limited,Guangzhou 510623,China;COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers Corporation Limited,Guangzhou 510627,China;Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited,Shanghai 200027,China;State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai,200240,China)

机构地区：[1]中石化中海船舶燃料供应有限公司,广州510623 [2]中远海运特种运输有限公司,广州510627 [3]武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,武汉430063 [4]武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心,武汉430063 [5]中国远洋海运集团有限公司,上海200027 [6]上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室,上海2000240

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2020年第3期105-111,147,共8页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51579203);湖北省自然科学基金青年杰出人才项目(2019CFA039)资助。

摘　　要：北极航线的开通,使中欧之间的航程缩短,节省船舶航行时间,大大降低航运成本。针对北极东北航线,结合中远北极历史航次数据,从航行里程、燃油消耗、护航费用等角度,分析海冰对航线经济性的影响,并从航行里程、节省船期的角度论证北极航线的经济性优势。在经济效益研究的基础上,分析未来北极的船型趋势,干散货船、集装箱船、LNG船等将会成为北极航线商业航行上方面主流船型。鉴于海冰因素对航次的经济性影响较大,高冰级船舶将成为未来冰区船舶的设计特点。在中俄共建"冰上丝绸之路"的大背景下,极地船舶设计、极地航行保障服务、北极转运港口建设是未来北极航道的开发建设方向。The possibility of Arctic channel is drastically reduce the distance between China and Europe,and can save voyage time and shipping costs.Based on the COSCO historical voyage data in the Arctic Northeast Passage,the voyage costs are analyzed by considering fuel costs,Suez Canal charges,escort costs,and saving shipping time.By comparing the China-EU routes and the Arctic Northeast Passage,the later one has the advantage of voyage distance,shipping time,fuel costs.On the basis of the current situation and future development trend of the Arctic Northeast Passage,the ship type in Arctic will be changed.General cargo ship,bulker ship,container ship,and LNG ship will become the mainly type of ships in Arctic merchant transportation,and research ship and multi-purpose ship will increase as well.The development and utilization of Arctic Channel will promote the improvement and upgrading of independent design,construction and supplementary technologies of polar vessels.Under the background of joint construction of the"Polar Silk Road",the future directions for polar ship design,polar navigation support services,and the construction of the Arctic transit port are the development and construction of the Arctic waterway.

关 键 词：中欧航线 北极航线 经济性 极地船舶 建设方向 

分 类 号：U694[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]