基于引力模型的海峡两岸贸易影响因素分析  

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Cross-Strait Trade Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：施烨昕 苏美祥[2] SI Ye-xin;SU Mei-xiang

机构地区：[1]闽南师范大学商学院,福建漳州363000 [2]福建社会科学院现代台湾研究所,福建福州350001

出　　处：《闽南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第3期31-37,共7页Journal of Minnan Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences

摘　　要：祖国大陆与台湾地区互为重要的贸易伙伴,两岸贸易发展对彼此经济的发展以及两岸关系稳定发展都具有重要的意义。运用贸易结合度指数对两岸贸易密切程度进行测算,表明两岸贸易联系虽日益紧密,但台湾地区对祖国大陆的贸易依赖程度要远远大于祖国大陆对台湾地区的贸易依赖程度。据此,通过构建两岸贸易引力模型实证分析发现对两岸贸易流量有显著影响的因素是祖国大陆人均GDP、祖国大陆人口规模、台湾地区人均GDP等。The development of cross-strait trade is of great significance to the mutual development of economy and the stable development of cross-strait relationship.The close degree of cross-strait trade was calculated by using the trade integration index and the result shows that while cross-strait trade ties are becoming closer and closer,the degree of trade dependence of Taiwan on the mainland is far greater than that of the mainland on Taiwan.On the basis of this,the empirical analysis by constructing the gravity model of cross-strait trade finds that the per capita GDP and population size of the mainland and the per capita GDP of Taiwan are the factors affecting the cross-strait trade flow.

关 键 词：引力模型 贸易规模 贸易结合度指数 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济] F127