村镇银行设立的攀比效应和竞争效应——基于空间probit模型的经验研究  

Bandwagon and Competition Effects of the Establishment of Village Banks in China——An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Probit Model

作　　者：吕勇斌[1] 袁子寒 付宇 Lv Yongbin;Yuan Zihan;Fu Yu(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Laws)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2020年第10期55-65,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“空间视角下包容性金融不平衡发展与再平衡发展研究”(18BJL077);国家社会科学基金一般项目“重大风险事件与股市流动性及波动性的关系研究”(17BTJ034)资助。

摘　　要：本文选取2007—2017年1857个县级地区的面板数据,采用空间Probit计量模型,实证分析结果表明,村镇银行的设立存在空间攀比效应和竞争效应。经济增长水平、财政分权程度、金融发展水平、金融竞争强度等经济特征对村镇银行的设立具有显著影响。运用反事实推断处理内生性问题,得到一致的估计结果。同时,在替换空间权重矩阵指标等稳健性检验后,结果仍然成立,且这种影响随着县域数字金融水平的分层比较而出现空间异质性。据此,本文提出尊重经济规律和市场机制、减少政府干预,以及注重培养村镇银行的可持续发展能力等政策建议。Village banks are important corporate banking institutions in the suburban areas in China,and their establishments are conducive to the improvement of financial inclusion in rural China.This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting the establishment of village banks from a spatial perspective.In this paper,panel data of 1857 county-level regions from 2007 to 2017 are used.The empirical analysis results of spatial probit econometric model shows that the establishment of village banks in neighboring counties and cities will stimulate the establishment of village banks in their own counties and cities,namely,there exists a bandwagon effect.At the same time,there is a spatial competition for financial resources between neighboring counties and cities,that is,there exists a competition effect.The economic characteristics such as the level of county and city economic growth,the degree of fiscal decentralization,the level of financial development,and the intensity of financial competition have significant influences on the establishment of village banks.counter-factual inference is used to control endogeneity problems,and a consistent estimate is obtained.This result is still valid after replacing the spatial weight matrix index and the economic development index.In addition,the influence is heterogeneous depending on the poverty level of the counties as well as the level of internet finance.In order to improve the establishment mode of village banks in China,this paper puts forward several policy suggestions.Firstly,to respect the economic law and market mechanism of village banks’establishment.Secondly,to reduce government intervention and focus on cultivating the sustainable development ability of village banks.Thirdly,to reduce the irrational behavior of village banks’establishment,and turn to paying attention to endogenous development factors.The marginal contribution of this paper is as follows.Firstly,it comprehensively considers the dual influences of space-time factors on village ban

关 键 词：村镇银行 攀比效应 竞争效应 空间Probit模型 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]