通货膨胀预期与企业存货投资行为——基于行业与企业融资约束视角的实证分析  

Expected Inflation and Firms’Behavior of Inventory Investment——Empirical Analysis Based on Industry and Financing Constraints

作　　者：翟光宇[1] 王晓晖 Zhai Guangyu;Wang Xiaohui(School of Finance,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics;China Resources Bank of Zhuhai Co.,Ltd)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学金融学院 [2]珠海华润银行

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2020年第10期86-96,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目“银行债风险溢价与市场预期研究”(LN2019Q59);东北财经大学2017年度校级科研项目“2017年校级优秀人才培育项目”(DUFE2017R02);2019年东北财经大学研究生教学改革研究项目“‘互联网+’时代手机微课的应用——以金融专硕课堂教学为例”(yjyb201913)资助。

摘　　要：通货膨胀是一种重要的宏观经济现象。在微观层面,通货膨胀预期又影响企业经营决策。存货是企业流动资产的重要组成部分,维持合理的存货对企业生存和发展具有重要影响。本文结合不同通货膨胀背景,从存货投资的角度出发,讨论通货膨胀预期对企业在存货决策方面产生的影响和效益,从行业分类和企业融资约束角度,探讨具有不同特征企业根据通货膨胀预期做出的存货决策是否具有差异性。本文以2006—2018年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,采用面板数据进行多元回归分析得出:在不同的通货膨胀环境中,通货膨胀预期上升会增加企业当期存货持有水平,提升其未来经营业绩;在低通货膨胀环境中,企业存货调整更具效率,对未来经营业绩提升作用更大;周期性行业和受融资约束程度较小的企业存货调整对通货膨胀预期更为敏感。本文研究结论对企业库存管理、政府产业管理,以及宏观调控政策具有一定的借鉴意义。While inflation is an important macroeconomic phenomenon,expected inflation also affects firms’operating decisions at the micro level.Inventory is a vital part of current assets,and maintaining a reasonable inventory holding level exerts significant influence on firms’survival and development.Therefore,based on different inflation situation,this paper discusses how expected inflation influences firms’inventory decisions and what benefits does expected inflation bring to firms from the perspective of inventory investment.The paper also investigates the difference in inventory decisions made by firms with different characteristics from the perspective of industry classification and firms’financing constraints.Based on the samples of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares listed companies during 2006—2018,by using panel data and through multiple re-gression analysis it is discovered that under different circumstances of inflation,rising expected inflation would drive firms to increase their investment in inventory and therefore gain operating performance improvement.Moreover,in a low inflation en-vironment,firms’inventory adjustments are more efficient and would provide a bigger boost to future operating performance.Further investigation finds that cyclical industries and firms with less financing constraints are more sensitive to expected inflation,thus making inventory adjustments accordingly.This study provides certain proposals to firms’inventory management,government industry management and macro-control policy.Firstly,under mild inflation,the price of ordinary commodities will rise to different degrees,and consumers’demand will increase.Therefore,firms should timely increase inventory investment,especially in cyclical industries.Secondly,inventory increase needs financial support.Firms should pay attention to internal cash flow management,and improve the efficiency of capital allocation.At the same time,firms should strengthen information disclosure system,in order to reduce information asymmetry and e

关 键 词：通货膨胀预期 存货投资 融资约束 经营业绩 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]