蓟州区核桃树主要物候期农业气象灾害区划研究  

Walnut Trees in Main Phenological Periods in Jizhou:Agro-meteorological Disaster Regionalization

作　　者：黄金颖 卢姝 袁淑杰[2] 金海东 赵然 孙小林 Huang Jinying;Lu Shu;Yuan Shujie;Jin Haidong;Zhao Ran;Sun Xiaolin(Jizhou Meteorological Bureau,Jizhou Tianjin 301900;School of Atmospheric Science,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225;Jizhou Public Emergency Warning and Release Centre,Jizhou Tianjin 301900)

机构地区：[1]天津市蓟州区气象局,天津蓟州301900 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都610225 [3]天津市蓟州区突发公共事件预警信息发布中心,天津蓟州301900

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2020年第26期93-105,共13页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：天津市蓟州区2019年中央财政“三农”服务专项建设。

摘　　要：利用1957—2018年天津蓟州地面常规气象观测站以及43个区域站的资料,确立核桃树主要物候期内气象灾害指标,完成指标因子的空间化并分析各指标因子随时间变化,以期为当地制定农业灾害防治规划提供帮助。应用5日滑动平均法、气候倾向率法、熵值法、线性加权综合法,分析天津蓟州核桃树农业气象灾害时空分布特征,并进行综合区划。结果表明:(1)蓟州区核桃树萌芽期轻度冷害、果实生长期轻度热害有上升的趋势,而萌芽期中度冷害、冻害、展叶期轻度冷害、开花期的中度冷害、果实生长期的连阴雨灾害有下降的趋势;(2)萌芽期、展叶期、开花期遭受低温冷冻灾害频率较高,三者均达到60%以上。其他灾害频率均低于20%。果实生长期强降水灾害频率最低;(3)天津蓟州东北部以及东部灾害综合评分较低,该地相对来说最适合种植核桃树。Based on the data of Ground Conventional Meteorological Observatory in Jizhou and 43 regional stations in Tianjin from 1957 to 2018,we established the meteorological disaster indicators of walnut tree in main phenological periods,completed the spatialization of the index factors and analyzed their change with time,so as to provide information for the local planning of agricultural disaster prevention and control.We studied the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of agro-meteorological disasters of walnut trees in Jizhou,Tianjin by five-day moving average method,climatic tendency rate method,entropy method and linear weighted synthesis method,and carried out the comprehensive regionalization.The results showed that:(1)mild chilling injury at germination stage and mild heat injury at fruit growth stage tended to increase,while moderate chilling injury,freezing injury at germination stage,mild chilling injury at leaf development stage,moderate chilling injury at flowering stage and continuous rain disaster at fruit growth stage tended to decrease;(2)the frequency of freezing disasters at germination stage,leaf spreading stage and flowering stage were higher,all of which reached more than 60%;the frequency of other disasters was less than 20%,the frequency of heavy precipitation disaster was the lowest at fruit growth stage;(3)the comprehensive scoring of disasters in northeast and east Jizhou was relatively low,indicating these areas could be most suitable for planting walnut trees.

关 键 词：核桃树 农业气象灾害区划 气温 降水 冷害 冻害 热害 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]