中国经济基础设施资本回报率: 测算、分解及影响因素  

Capital Return Rate of China’s Economic Infrastructure: Estimation, Decomposition and Influencing Factors

作　　者：郭鹏飞[1] 曹跃群[1] GUO Peng-fei;CAO Yue-qun(Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学公共管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《当代财经》2020年第10期3-17,共15页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“后危机时代一带一路沿线国家经济增长趋势与结构演变研究”(18XJL011);国家社会科学基金项目“乡村振兴战略背景下中国农村基础设施投入效率评价及优化路径研究”(19CJY036);中央高校基本科研业务费研究生创新创业项目“分类型基础设施影响区域经济增长的理论与实证研究”(106112017CDJXSYY0001)

摘　　要：基于永续盘存法和生产函数法的测算结果显示,经济基础设施的资本存量在1993-2017年以年均12.9%的速度急剧攀升,其资本回报率的变动趋势在样本期内呈倒“U”型。要素贡献度分解的结果表明,经济基础设施的资本产出比与其资本回报率的联系最为紧密,贡献度平均高达65.3%。进一步实证分析发现,经济基础设施的投资率及其资本深化水平、区域创新水平、人力资本、对外开放、制度因素、国有经济比重、城镇化水平和产业结构对经济基础设施资本回报率均有显著影响。其中,经济基础设施的投资率与其资本回报率存在“U”型关系,贸易依存度对经济基础设施资本回报率的提升作用持续减弱,人力资本积累和制度因素对经济基础设施资本回报率的负向影响也逐渐减弱。此外,成因分解结果表明,经济基础设施资本回报率在1999-2003年和2008-2017年这两个阶段快速下降的主要原因存在明显差异。The results of the calculation based on the perpetual inventory method and the production function method show that the capital stock of economic infrastructure has ascended sharply at an average annual rate of 12.9% from 1993 to 2017, and the changing trend of its rate of capital return showed an inverted U-shape during the sample period. The results of the factor contribution decomposition indicate that the capital-output ratio of economic infrastructure is most closely related to its rate of capital return, with an average contribution rate of 65.3%. The findings of further empirical analysis reveal that the investment rate of economic infrastructure and its level of capital deepening,the level of regional innovation, human capital, opening to the outside world, the institutional factors,the proportion of state-owned economy, the level of urbanization and the industrial structure all have significant impact on the rate of capital return of economic infrastructure. Among them, the investment rate of economic infrastructure and its rate of capital return have a U-shaped relationship, the promoting effect of the dependence degree of trade on the rate of capital return of economic infrastructure is continuously weakening, the negative influence of human capital accumulation and institutional factors on the rate of capital return of economic infrastructure is also weakening gradually. In addition, the results of the cause decomposition show that the major causes for the rapid decline of the rate of capital return of economic infrastructure during the two periods of 1999-2003 and2008-2017 are significantly different.

关 键 词：经济基础设施 资本存量 资本回报率 贡献度分解 影响因素 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]