2011-2019年四川省手足口病时空特征分析  

Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease in Sichuan Province From 2011 to 2019

作　　者：李羚[1] 许军红[1] 蔺鸿[1] 刘润友[1] 张云娜[1] 李蔚 彭艳秋 杨长虹[1] LI Ling;XU Junhong;LIN Hong;LIU Runyou;ZHANG Yunna;LI Wei;PENG Yanqiu;YANG Changhong(Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心,成都610041

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2020年第10期1271-1275,1284,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：National Institutes of Health(项目编号:R01AI125842)。

摘　　要：目的了解四川省近年来手足口病时空特征,探究疫情变化特点,为手足口病防控提供更科学的依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法,对四川省2011-2019年间报告手足口病例进行分析。手足口病热图采用R 3.6.1统计软件绘制,地区分布地图采用Arcgis 10.2软件进行制作。结果2011-2019年四川省手足口病年均发病率为95.01/10万,年均死亡率为0.018/10万,发病率呈现波动上升的趋势,偶数年较奇数年发病率高,死亡率总体呈下降趋势;发病有明显的季节性和双峰性,高峰时间分别为4-7月和10-12月;各地区优势发病高峰略有不同,攀枝花市发病高峰较其他市州晚1个月,呈现晚峰;2011-2019年各市(州)均有手足口病病例报告,高发地区以成都市为中心向四周不断增加。结论2011-2019年四川省手足口病发病具有明显的周期性和季节性,疫情强度和范围不断增加。各市(州)月分布模式略有不同,应结合各市(州)发病特点,进一步探索不同发病模式的影响因素,控制手足口病的流行。Objective To study spatial-temporal characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Sichuan province in recent years,to explore epidemic characteristics and provide more scientific basis for HFMD prevention.Methods Descriptive epidemiology analysis was conducted to analyze the data of HFMD from 2011 to 2019.R 3.6.1 was used to produce heat maps of HFMD,We used Arcgis 10.2 to draw maps to show morbidity of different regions.Results Average annual morbidity of HFMD form 2011 to 2019 in Sichuan province was 95.01/10^5,average annual mortality was 0.018/10^5.The morbidity showed a fluctuating uptrend,while the morbidity in evennumbered years was higher than that in oddnumbered years.The mortality showed a downtrend;The epidemic situation showed obvious seasonality and bimodality,and the peak months were April-July and October-December respectively.Advantage peaks of each city were slightly different,the onset peak of Panzhihua city was one month later than that in other cities and states,Panzhihua showed late peak pattern;All regions in Sichuan reported HFMD in 2011-2019,and the areas of high morbidity were increasing with Chengdu as the center.Conclusion The morbidity of HFMD in Sichuan shows obvious periodicity and seasonality.The epidemic situation is increasing in intensity and scope.Monthly distribution patterns vary slightly by city and we should control the prevalence of HFMD based on the epidemic characteristics of each region,and further explore the influencing factors of different epidemic patterns.

关 键 词：手足口病 时空特征 高峰时间 R软件 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]