汇率升值对境内旅游消费的挤压及空间溢出的影响  

The impact of exchange rate appreciation on domestic tourism consumption and spatial spillover

作　　者：屈峰[1] 杨珍妮 黄梅萍 QU Feng;YANG Zhen-ni;HUANG Mei-ping(College of Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China;New Zealand Institute of Business and Technology,Christchurch,Canterbury 8011,New Zealand)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学管理学院,福建福州350002 [2]新西兰商业理工学院,坎特伯雷克赖斯特彻奇8011

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第5期82-90,共9页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：福建省出国留学奖学金项目(2018071160);福建省社科研究基地重大项目(FJ2019JDZ024)。

摘　　要：旅游行为具有明显的流动性和扩散性,汇率波动不仅影响本国旅游消费,也影响邻国旅游者的消费选择。把握汇率波动对境内旅游消费的挤压和溢出效应,有助于旅游业提前应对汇率波动产生的后果。本研究选取14个世界主要旅游目的地国2000—2017年的数据,利用固定效应模型和空间回归模型,实证分析了汇率升值对境内旅游消费具有显著的负相关关系,且汇率升值会导致本国境内旅游向邻近低消费国家的溢出现象。Tourism behavior has obvious liquidity and diffusion,so that exchange rate fluctuations not only affect domestic tourism consumption,but also affect the consumption choices of tourists in neighboring countries.Grasping the squeeze and spillover effects of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic tourism consumption will help the tourism industry deal with the consequences of exchange rate fluctuations in advance.Based on the data of 14 major tourism destination countries from 2000 to 2017,this paper empirically analyzes the significant negative correlation between exchange rate appreciation and domestic tourism consumption by using fixed effect model and spatial regression model.Exchange rate appreciation will lead to the spillover of domestic tourism from neighboring countries to low-consuming countries.

关 键 词：境内旅游消费 汇率波动 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]