中国农产品监测预警阈值表的研究与建立  

Research and Establishment of Monitoring and Early Warning Threshold Table of Agricultural Products in China

作　　者：许世卫[1,2,3,4] 王禹 潘月红[1] 李建政 李干琼[1,4] 张永恩 庄家煜[1,4] 王盛威[1,3] 刘佳佳 Xu Shiwei;Wang Yu;Pan Yuehong;Li Jianzheng;Li Ganqiong;Zhang Yongen;Zhuang Jiayu;Wang Shengwei;Liu Jiajia(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081;Research Center of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Engineering Technologies of Beijing,Beijing 100081;Key Open Laboratory of Intelligent Agricultural Early Warning Technologies and Systems,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [2]北京市农业监测预警工程技术研究中心,北京100081 [3]中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室,北京100081 [4]农业农村部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2020年第8期3-25,共23页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程(CAAS-ASTIP-2020-AII-02);部委项目“中国农业展望和模型研究”“中国主要农产品价格分析预测方法研究”。

摘　　要：农产品监测预警是现代农业管理的高端工具和保障国家粮食安全的重要手段。在介绍和分析农产品监测预警方法和阈值表功能以及警度划分的基础上,基于分位数法、聚类法等统计学方法,以中国农产品的生产、消费和价格为对象,从增加和减少两个维度研究和建立了分年度、季度、月度、周度、日度的中国农产品监测预警阈值表,并解析了阈值表的结构。作为基准表,中国农产品监测预警阈值表的研制为中国农产品市场警情及警度的标定、分级和触发提供了参照和依据,是实现中国农产品监测预警过程程序化、标准化和数据化的重要工作手段,对中国农产品监测预警工作在预见性、可操作性、规范性及自动化性等方面是一个重大推进。Agricultural products monitoring and early warning is a high-end tool of modern agricultural management and an important means to ensure national food security.Based on the introduction and analysis of monitoring and early warning methods of agricultural products,the function of threshold table,and the division of warning degree,with the help of the quantile,clustering and other statistical methods,taking the production,consumption and price of agricultural products in China as the objects,this paper studied and established the monitoring and early warning threshold table of China's agricultural products by year,quarter,month,week and day, and the structure of threshold table was also analyzed. As a benchmark table, the development of monitoring and early warning threshold table of China's agricultural products provides a reference and basis for the calibration, classification and triggering of alarm situation and alarm degree in China's agricultural products market. It is an important working means to realize the procedure, standardization and data-orienting of China's agricultural products monitoring and early warning, which is a significant advance in the predictability, operability, standardization and automation of China's agricultural products monitoring and early warning work.

关 键 词：农产品监测预警 生产 消费 价格 警度 基准 阈值表 

分 类 号：F322[经济管理—产业经济]