2020年上半年中国畜产品贸易形势分析与下半年展望  

China's Livestock Products Trade in the First Half of 2020 and Its Outlook for the Second Half

作　　者：包利民[1] 乌兰[1] 李鸥 Bao Limin;Wu Lan;Li Ou(Beijing Vocational College of Agriculture,Beijing 100093;Agricultural Trade Promotion Center,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100125)

机构地区：[1]北京农业职业学院,北京100093 [2]农业农村部农业贸易促进中心,北京100125

出　　处：《农业展望》2020年第8期144-149,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业农村部“农业农村资源等统计监测”(131821301112421020)。

摘　　要：2020年上半年,中国畜产品贸易大幅增长,较上年同期增长1/3。羽毛、肠衣等畜产品出口大幅下降,猪肉、牛肉和禽肉等畜产品进口大幅增加,贸易逆差扩大近60%。从主要贸易伙伴看,中国畜产品对主要市场的出口均出现较大幅度下降,自巴西、美国、西班牙、丹麦等国家畜产品进口都翻了一番。综合考虑新冠肺炎疫情、非洲猪瘟和中美贸易摩擦等因素影响,下半年中国畜产品贸易仍将保持进口增长和出口下降的态势,肉类、奶类等进口将创历史新高,贸易逆差将进一步扩大。In the first half of 2020,China's trade in livestock products has grown substantially at an increase of 1/3 over the same period last year.Exports of livestock products such as feathers and casings have fallen sharply,while imports of livestock products such as pork,beef and poultry have increased significantly.The trade deficit has widened by nearly 60%.From the perspective of major trading partners,China's exports of livestock products to major markets have all declined significantly,while the imports from Brazil,the United States,Spain,Denmark and other countries have all doubled.Taking into account of the COVID-19 pandemic,African swine fever,US-China trade war and other factors,China's imports of livestock products will continue to increase while exports will keep declining in the second half of the year,also the imports of meat and milk products will hit a record high.Meanwhile,the trade deficit will further expand.

关 键 词：畜产品贸易 新冠肺炎疫情 非洲猪瘟 中美贸易摩擦 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752