长贮装备性能退化评估刍议  

Discussion on Performance Degradation Assessment of Long-term Storage Equipment

作　　者：魏发远[1] 谢朝阳[1] 孙昌璞 康锐[3] WEI Fayuan;XIE Chaoyang;SUN Changpu;KANG Rui(Institute of Systems Engineering,China Academy of Engineering Physics,Mianyang 621900;Graduate School,China Academy of Engineering Physics,Beijing 100193;School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191)

机构地区：[1]中国工程物理研究院总体工程研究所,绵阳621900 [2]中国工程物理研究院研究生院,北京100193 [3]北京航空航天大学可靠性系统工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2020年第16期262-272,共11页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国防基础科研核科学挑战专题资助项目(TZ2018007)。

摘　　要：针对长贮装备服役退化后的可靠性和继续服役能力再认定问题(简称性能退化评估),总结归纳长贮装备的"状态退化性"、"环境突变性"、"使用一次性"、"后果要害性"等基本特点,分析长贮装备的退化行为与功能行为,提出描述其行为特性的退化行为方程和功能行为方程,基于确信可靠性理论和裕量可靠原则,给出功能行为能力和继续服役能力的基本测度,形成性能退化评估的理论基础,在此基础上建立进行性能退化评估的总体框架,包括健康状态与功能状态信息获取、裕量与不确定性量化、继续服役能力与功能行为能力的确信可靠性评估等。讨论性能退化评估涉及的退化行为机理、多场环境模拟、多不确定性量化等科学技术问题,分析性能退化评估理论与技术体系及其研究进展、发展趋势。Aimed for performance assessment of long-term storage equipment(LTSE) due to degradation, main features of LTSE such as "performance degradation", "environment change suddenly", "one-shot", "mission critical", are summarized. The degradation equation(DE) and functional equation(FE) are presented to describe the essential behaviours. Chance probabilities of performance margin(PM) and health status margin(HSM) are introduced to measure the reliability and service ability of LTSE. The key elements associated with the performance degradation assessment, including health status assessment, functionality assessment, reliability assessment, are elaborated. The technical framework for performance degradation assessment of LTSE are proposed. Scientific and technical problems related to performance degradation assessment of LTSE are listed, and they are degradation behaviour mechanism in complex environments, operation condition characterization and simulation, reliability assessment under multiple uncertainties and small sample size. Through the discussion, the concepts and the technical needs for performance degradation assessment of long-term storage equipment are clarified systematically.

关 键 词：长贮装备 性能退化 可靠性评估 健康管理 

分 类 号：TG156[金属学及工艺—热处理]