1961—2016年北疆冷空气过程变化特征及其环流指数分析  

Analysis of Cold Air Process Activity in Northern Xinjiang During 1961—2016 and the Atmospheric Circulation Index

作　　者：张太西 江远安[3] 樊静 刘精[2] 余行杰 ZHANG Taixi;JIANG Yuanan;FAN Jing;LIU Jing;YU Xingjie(Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Mereorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Xinjiang Climate Center,Urumqi 830002,China;Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2020年第5期107-114,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(IDM2016003);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201709)。

摘　　要：根据《冷空气过程监测指标》(QX/393-2017)分析1961—2016年新疆北部(简称北疆)单站和区域不同等级冷空气时空变化特征以及环流指数与其相关性。结果表明:北疆单站冷空气频次中等强度冷空气最多,寒潮次多,强冷空气最少;各级冷空气在北疆北部频发,空间差异明显,一半以上站点寒潮减少趋势显著;区域冷空气寒潮最多,中等强度冷空气、强冷空气频次相当,其中寒潮减少速率为0.58次/10 a,强冷空气变化不明显,中等强度冷空气增加速率为0.1次/10 a;单站和区域寒潮在冬季高发,强冷空气和中等强度冷空气春秋季多发;冷空气初日无明显变化,终日呈推后趋势;不同等级冷空气过程均存在3个长短不一的变化周期,中等强度冷空气、强冷空气存在明显突变,寒潮未出现突变;88个大气环流指数中有27个与北疆不同时期冷空气发生频次显著相关。其中,斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型指数偏高,则北疆地区气温偏低;亚洲区、北半球极涡指数偏大,则新疆冬季气温偏低,冷空气过程发生概率增大;南极涛动指数强年,北疆地区冷空气过程出现频次会减少。Using the daily data of minimum and average temperature from 46 observation stations in northern Xinjiang since 1961 to 2016,and based on the monitoring index of cold air process(QX/393-2017)issued by the China Meteorological Administration,calculated and analyzed single and regional cold air process of multi-time scale variation characteristics at different levels.The results showed that:The high incidence area of single station cold air process was mainly concentrated in the north of northern Xinjiang and along the Tianshan mountains.The cold wave of single station was significant downward trend.There is no obvious change trend about regional medium intensity cold air in northern Xinjiang,strong cold air showed a weak increasing trend and cold wave showed a significant decreased trend.The first day about cold air was no obvious change trend,the last day about showed backward trend.There were change periods of 8~9 years,2~4 years,17~18 years for regional process of moderate intensity cold air in the northern Xinjiang and climatic jump points was in 1965—1967.The regional strong cold air process had change periods of 11~12 years,4~6 years and 18~19 years,and climatic jump points was 1977.There were periods of 25~26 years,13~14 years,8~9 years,5~6 years in the cold wave,and the mutation period was not appeared.There was 27 atmospheric circulation index had significantly correlated with the frequency of cold air in different periods.The higher the Scandinavian teleconnection index the lower the temperature in northern Xinjiang.The polar vorticity index in Asia and the northern hemisphere is larger,the winter temperature will be lower and the cold air probability will increase in Xinjiang.The frequency of cold air in northern Xinjiang may decrease in the year of strong Antarctic oscillation index.

关 键 词：北疆 冷空气 变化特征 环流指数 

分 类 号：P425.54[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]