复杂情境下我国地方政府债务风险的影响因素与内在逻辑——基于平台违约案例的fsQCA分析  

The Influencing Factors and Inherent Mechanism of Local Government Debt Risk under the Complex Situation:Based on fsQCA of Governmental Investment Companies’Default Cases

作　　者：王国平 李永刚[1] Wang Guoping;Li Yonggang

机构地区：[1]南京大学政府管理学院,南京210023

出　　处：《南京社会科学》2020年第10期80-86,共7页Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大专项“防范化解重大风险研究”(17VZL018);国家自然科学基金项目“基于情景风险分析的PPP项目政府与社会资本合作机制研究”(71701090);南京大学文科青年跨学科团队专项“大数据背景下城市基础设施项目环境风险及适应性治理研究”(14370120)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：地方政府债务风险存在隐蔽性深、随机性大、涉及面广等高度复杂性特征,其防控成效直接制约“守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线”。从环境情境、组织情境和政府情境三个维度提取了7个影响地方政府债务风险的影响因素,运用fs-QCA方法对28个典型地方政府债务风险事件进行实证分析,研究结果显示地方政府债务风险的生成主要受4种组态构型影响,分别为“政策法律变动型(M1)”“低信用评级型(M2)”“债务财政不匹配型(M5)”以及“政府兜底失效型(M7)”,为地方政府债务风险研究提出了一种全新的分析视角。The debt risk of local government has highly complex characteristics including deep concealment,high randomness and kinds of stakeholders.Its prevention and control effectiveness directly restricts“holding the bottom line where systemic financial risks do not occur”.Seven factors affecting local government debt risk were extracted from the three dimensions of environmental situation,organizational situation and government situation.The fs-QCA method was employed to conduct empirical analysis on 28 typical local government debt risk events.Results showed the generation of local government debt risk were affected by four configuration types,namely“policy and law change type(M1)”,“low credit rating type(M2)”,“debt financial mismatch type(M5)”and“government pocket failure type(M7)”,which proposes a brand-new analytical perspective for the research of local government debt risk.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 债务风险 融资平台 fsQCA 

分 类 号：C812.7[社会学—统计学]