2009~2018年济南市人间布鲁氏菌病时空聚集性分析  

Temporal-spatial clustering analysis on human brucellosis,Jinan city,2009-2018

作　　者：赵梦娇[1] 王宁[1] 许华茹[1] 隋庆梅[1] 耿兴义[1] 王蔚茹[1] ZHAO Meng-jiao;WANG Ning;XU Hua-ru;SUI Qing-mei;GENG Xing-yi;WANG Wei-ru(*Jinan City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan,Shandong,250021,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]济南市疾病预防控制中心,山东济南250021

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2020年第9期657-660,共4页Preventive Medicine Tribune

摘　　要：目的了解济南市人间布鲁氏菌病(简称:布病)流行病学和时空分布特征,为制定预防控制策略、评价防控效果提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集济南市2009~2018年所有乡镇(街道)布病病例,描述布病事件分布特征,运用空间自相关分析方法,分析布病发病空间特征,利用SaTScan 9.5软件进行时空聚集性分析。结果2009~2018年济南市共报告布病1660例,年均发病率为2.42/10万,2016年布病发病率最高为5.33/10万。病例以中老年男性为主(88.98%),3~7月为高发月份(59.75%)。布病发病率的全局Moran’s I指数为0.12(P<0.01),表明济南市布病发病率存在空间正相关性。局部空间自相关分析显示,从2010年开始,沙河乡、白桥乡、郑陆镇、孙集乡、玉皇庙街道和许商街道一直是布病发病率的高聚集区,部分高值聚集区变为高值分散区、一般区,高值分散区不断扩散;时空聚集性分析结果显示,共探测到6个时空聚集区,其中一类聚集区是商河县沙河乡,时间是2018年4月1~31日(RR=230.38,LLR=66.59,P<0.01);二类聚集区有5个,时间均集中在2015年3~5月。结论济南市布鲁氏菌病发病存在时空聚集性,商河县是疫情防控的重点地区。Objective To understand the epidemiology and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of brucellosis in Jinan city,so as to provide the evidence for developing prevention and control strategies and evaluating prevention and control effects.Methods Through the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System,brucellosis cases in Jinan city during 2009-2018 were collected,and the distribution characteristics were described.The spatial autocorrelation analysis method was used to analyze the spatial characteristics of brucellosis,and the SaTScan 9.5 was used to perform spatiotemporal aggregation analysis.Results A total of 1660 cases of brucellosis were reported in Jinan city during 2009-2018,and the incidence of brucellosis was the highest(5.33/10~5)in 2016,the annual incidence was 2.42/10~5.The male and middle-aged cases accounted for the most cases(88.98%),and the cases mainly occurred during March-July.The overall Moran’s I index of the incidence of brucellosis was 0.12(P<0.01),indicating a spatial positive correlation in the incidence of brucellosis in Jinan city.The spatial autocorrelation analysis has been visualized.Since 2010,the high concentration area of brucellosis has been appearing in Shahe county,Baiqiao county,Zhenglu county,Sunji county,Yuhuangmiao street and Xushang county of Shanghe streets,other high-value clusters have become high-value dispersion areas,general areas,and high-value dispersion areas continue to spread;results of temporal-spatial scan showed 6 temporal spatial aggregation areas,among them,the fist-class gathering areas was Shahe county,the time was April 1 st-April 31 st,2018(RR=230.38,LLR=66.59,P<0.01);there were 5 second-class gathering areas,the time all concentrated in March-May 2015.Conclusion The occurrence of brucellosis in Jinan city has a spatiotemporal aggregation,Shanghe county is a key area for epidemic prevention and control.

关 键 词：布鲁氏菌病(布病) 流行特征 时空聚集性 空间自相关 

分 类 号：R516.7[医药卫生—内科学]