净现值法和实物期权法在煤层气开发项目投资决策中的应用比较  

Comparison of Net Present Value and Real Option Method in Investment Decision ofCBMDevelopment Project

作　　者：代由进 吕剑凤 丁桂霞 郭志鹏 DAI You-jin;LYU Jian-feng;DING Gui-xia;GUO Zhi-peng(China PetroChina Coalbed Methane Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100028,China;Dagang Oilfield Economic and Technological Research Institute,Tianjin 300450,China)

机构地区：[1]中石油煤层气有限责任公司,北京100028 [2]大港油田经济技术研究院,天津300450

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2020年第10期196-200,共5页Coal Technology

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大科技专项(2017E-1407)。

摘　　要：合理的投资决策是煤层气项目实现经济有效开发的前提。目前针对煤层气开发项目的投资决策多数运用传统的净现值法进行决策分析,但净现值法存在诸多局限性。为此,通过阐述净现值法与实物期权法的运用原理,并结合我国煤层气开发产能建设项目实例,对比分析2种方法在投资决策中结果。研究与应用结果表明:传统净现值法没有考虑不确定性所带来的期权价值:针对不确定性大以及不可逆性的项目,实物期权法可以根据煤层气价格波动性、生产成本的变化来决定是否执行期权。结论认为净现值法与实物期权法具有一定的内在一致性,前者计算过程较简便、可操作性强,后者对于项目投资价值的计算更准确。Reasonable investment decision is the prerequisite for the realization of economic and effective development of coal-bed methane projects.At present,most of the investment decisions for CBM development projects use traditional net present value(NPV)method for decision analysis,however,theNPVmethod has many limitations.To this end,by expounding the application principle of theNPVmethod and the real option method,combined with the example of China′s coal-bed methane development capacity construction project,the results of the two methods in investment decision are compared and analyzed.Research and application results show that the traditionalNPVmethod does not consider the value of options brought about by uncertainty.For options with high uncertainty and irreversibility,the real option method can decide whether to execute the option based on the change of coal bed gas price volatility and production cost.In conclusion,theNPVmethod is intrinsically consistent with real option method,the former calculation process is simple and operability,the latter is more accurate in calculating the investment value of the project.

关 键 词：煤层气 NPV法 实物期权法 投资决策 决策方法 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F406