贸易、投资、社会网络资本与经济周期趋势研究  

Research on Trade,Investment and Social Network Capital and Ecomomic Cycle Trends

作　　者：张英 张倩肖[1] Zhang Ying;Zhang Qianxiao

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安710061 [2]西安翻译学院商学院,西安710061

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2020年第11期61-72,共12页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“产业共生视角下中国对“一带一路”国家产业转移模式及演化路径研究”(18BJY002),项目负责人:张倩肖;西安翻译学院科研团队基金项目(XFU17KYTDB03),项目负责人:张英

摘　　要：研究选取"一带一路"60个沿线国家作为分析样本,并按地理分布划分分为6个地区,在采用Stockman贸易增长模型分析2002-2018年中国与各地区在贸易、OFDI和网络社会资本因素对双边经济同步化的冲击影响后发现:(1)贸易冲击效应对中国与沿线地区双边经济同步化呈下降趋势,而产业冲击呈上升趋势,且贸易效应和产业效应存在一定替代关系,此外,产业内冲击对经济同步化具有正向关系而产业间冲击呈负向关系;(2)中国OFDI对双边产业冲击效应影响显著于对贸易效应影响,其不仅能够一定程度消除双边贸易壁垒扩大贸易规模,且在专业化投资作用下逐渐形成产业专业化空间布局特征,增强了双边经济同步化,但金融一体化对双边经济同步化整体影响长期偏弱;(3)贸易契约作为强关系成为双边社会网资本的主要形态,偏低信任度造成双边社会各种网络关系构建阻碍,并对双边产业和投资领域发展造成消极影响;(4)中国与沿线地区双边经贸往来正由贸易形态向着产业、资本等高级化形态演进,产业、投资和社会网络资本对未来双边经济同步性影响作用将得以持续提升。The study selected 60 countries along the"Belt and Road"as analysis samples,and divided them into 6 regions according to geographical distribution.The Stockman trade growth model was used to analyze the trade,OFDI,and network social capital factors of China and regions from 2002 to 2018.After the impact of the bilateral economic synchronization,it was found that:(1)The impact of the trade impact on the bilateral economic synchronization between China and the regions along the line is decreasing,while the industrial impact is increasing,and there is a certain substitution relationship between the trade effect and the industrial effect.In addition,the industry Internal shocks have a positive relationship to economic synchronization,and inter-industrial shocks have a negative relationship.(2)The impact of Chinas OFDI on the bilateral industrial impact is significantly greater than the impact on trade effects,which can not only eliminate bilateral trade barriers to a certain extent and expand trade scale.Under the effect of industrial specialization investment,the characteristics of the spatial layout of specialized industries have gradually formed,and bilateral economic synchronization has been enhanced.However,the overall impact of financial integration factors on bilateral economic synchronization along the route has been weak for a long time;(3)Trade contracts as a strong Relationships have become the main form of capital on bilateral social networks Responsibility has hindered the construction of various network relationships in the bilateral society,and has a negative impact on the synchronization of the bilateral economy.(4)The bilateral economic and trade exchanges between China and the regions along the route are evolving from trade patterns to advanced forms such as industry and capital.The impact of social network capital on the bilateral economic synchronization will continue to increase.

关 键 词：贸易 投资 社会网络资本 经济周期 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]