人口城镇化、地方公共支出与房价——基于PVAR模型的动态研究  

Population Urbanization,Local Public Expenditure and Housing Price:Dynamic Research Based on PVAR Model

作　　者：洪建国[1] 任金荣 陈立中[1] HONG Jian'guo;REN Jinrong;CHEN Lizhong

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2020年第9期115-121,共7页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“建立健全住房基础性制度和房地产市场平稳健康发展长效机制研究”(19JZD012);教育部人文社科规划基金项目“住宅类建筑能耗、排放测算与低碳建筑政策设计”(16YJA790054);中央高校基本科研项目“中国土地整理分配的空间正义研究”(CCNU19QN001);国家社科基金一般项目“跨区域生态保护与环境治理联动的制度困境与改革创新研究”(17BJC040)。

摘　　要：基于2003~2017年的中国省级面板数据,运用面板向量自回归模型,从全国和区域两个层面对人口城镇化、地方公共支出和房价的动态关系进行了实证分析。研究发现,人口城镇化、地方公共支出与房价三者之间在总体上相互促进之外,还呈现出地区差异性、作用衰减性等深层次关系:(1)地方公共支出对人口城镇化的促进作用只发生在东部、中部地区,且在中部地区具有持续性;(2)人口城镇化与房价之间没有显著的相互促进关系;(3)房价对地方公共支出的促进作用不可持续,其效果先强后弱,逐步衰减。Based on China′s provincial panel data from 2003 to 2017,this paper applies a panel vector auto regressive model to empirically analyze the dynamic relationship between population urbanization,local public expenditure and housing price at the national and regional levels.According to the research,population urbanization,local public expenditure and housing price not only promote each other on the whole,but also present deep relationship such as spatial difference and attenuating effect:(1)The promotion effect of local public expenditure on population urbanization only occurs in the eastern and central regions,and it is sustainable in the central regions;(2)There is no significant correlation between population urbanization and housing price;(3)the promotion effect of housing price on local public expenditure is not sustainable,and the effect is first strong,then weak,and gradually declines.

关 键 词：人口城镇化 地方公共支出 房价 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]