基于三支决策和前景理论的网络舆情突发事件应急群决策模型  

The group decision model of network public opinion emergencies based on three-way decision and prospect theory

作　　者：胡彦[1] 陈华友[2] HU Yan;CHEN Huayou(School of International Business,Anhui University,Hefei 230039,China;School of Mathematical Sciences,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学国际商学院,安徽合肥230039 [2]安徽大学数学科学学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《安徽大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第6期13-19,共7页Journal of Anhui University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71871001)。

摘　　要：随着网络舆情的快速发展,各种突发事件对应急管理部门提出更高的要求.针对同时爆发的多个网络舆情突发事件,构建了模糊多属性应急群决策模型.首先,通过FOWA(fuzzy ordered weighted averaging)算子对有效衡量舆情突发事件的模糊语言变量进行集结,并去模糊化来构建专家评价矩阵,通过三支决策模型来确定接收域和拒绝域.鉴于突发事件带来的收益和风险的非对称性,在前景理论基础上构建相应的前景值矩阵,从而获得各事件的综合效果值,并进行排序.最后通过一个算例,验证了模型的合理有效性,并对阈值参数进行了灵敏度分析.With the rapid development of network public opinion,various emergencies had higher requirements for emergency management departments.In this paper,a fuzzy multi-attribute model of emergency group decision making was constructed for the simultaneous outbreak of multiple network public opinion emergencies.Firstly,FOWA(fuzzy ordered weighted averaging)operator was used to aggregate fuzzy language variables that could effectively measure public opinion emergencies and built an expert evaluation matrix by defuzzification.The accepting domain and rejecting domain were determined by three-way decision models.Because of the asymmetry of benefits and risks led by emergencies,the corresponding prospect value matrix was obtained on the basis of prospect theory,so as to get the comprehensive value of each emergency event and rank them.Finally,an example was given to verify the validity of the model,and the sensitivity analysis on threshold parameters was given.

关 键 词：网络舆情 突发事件 应急决策 模糊语言变量 三支决策 前景理论 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]