社会核算矩阵稳态均衡模型研究  

Design and Application of Stable Equilibrium Model of Social Accounting Matrix

作　　者：李原[1] 梁珂 李宝瑜[1] Li Yuan;Liang Ke;Li Baoyu

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院 [2]山西财经大学

出　　处：《统计研究》2020年第10期3-16,共14页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:“中国货币政策国际联动量化决策方法与模型研究”(17CGL010)。

摘　　要：不同于社会核算矩阵乘数模型(SAM-M)和基于社会核算矩阵的可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),本文设计了一套社会核算矩阵稳态均衡模型(SAM-SE)。该模型采用目标规划模型形式,以经济系统稳态性作为目标函数,给出了冲击变量、系统平衡、价格方程、技术行为方程、局部优化方程和表外变量6组约束条件。设定在不同的约束条件下,可以建立稳态预测,技术模拟和均衡优化三种不同功能的层次模型。本文在编制中国2017年SAM的基础上,给出了一个SAM-SE模型应用实例。SAM-SE模型可以用于国家经济系统运行模拟、预测和经济政策效用评价。Different from Social Accounting Matrix Multiplier Model( SAM-M) and Computable General Equilibrium Model(CGE),this paper designs a Stable Equilibrium Model of Social Accounting Matrix( SAMSE). The model adopts the form of objective programming model,taking the stability of economic system as the objective function,and gives six sets of constraints: impact variable,system balance,price determination equation,technical behavior equation,local optimization equation and off-table variable. When different constraints are set up,three hierarchical models of stability prediction,technical simulation and equilibrium optimization can be established. Based on the compilation of China ’s SAM 2017,this paper gives an application example of SAM-SE. SAM-SE model can be used to simulate the operation of national economic system,predict and evaluate the effectiveness of economic policies.

关 键 词：社会核算矩阵 CGE模型 一般均衡 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]