中国海外耕地投资发展的时空格局演变与影响因素  

Spatiotemporal change of China’s overseas investment in farmlands and influencing factors

作　　者：韩璟[1] 陈泽秀 卢新海[1,2] HAN Jing;CHEN Zexiu;LU Xinhai(College of Public Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;College of Public Administration,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学公共管理学院,武汉430079 [2]华中科技大学公共管理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《资源科学》2020年第9期1715-1727,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41501589);华中师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(CCNU20QN035,CCNU20QN036)。

摘　　要：为探究中国海外耕地投资活动的发展规律,论文基于GRAIN和Land Matrix的案例统计数据,采用文献资料法、空间计量法,从投资规模的空间格局演变及其发展的影响因素两个方面进行了分析。结果表明:①2004年以后中国海外耕地投资的总体空间集聚效应开始显现,目前在局部已形成明显的空间分化,局部空间集聚效应的高-高集聚区是俄罗斯和东南亚地区;②中国海外耕地投资活动的空间变异影响范围和影响程度经历了一个波动增强的过程,在西北至东南方向的空间变异最为显著,东道国的内部因素已成为影响中国海外耕地投资发展的重要因素;③中国海外耕地投资的发展受地缘政治、地缘经济和地缘文化因素的共同影响,其中东道国农用地比例,谷物单产水平,同中国的声明、宣言和公报总数,对华免签证件数量和驻华领事机构数量5个指标在统计上显著性较高。在中国海外耕地投资发展规模已呈现空间分异趋于稳定发展的情况下,相关机构应当重视对东南亚地区和俄罗斯的投资保护与规划。The purpose of this study was to explore the development of China’s overseas farmland investment activities.Based on the case statistics of GRAIN and Land Matrix,this study analyzed the change in spatial pattern and influencing factors of China’s overseas farmland investment development by means of literature review and spatial measurement.The results show that:(1)The overall spatial agglomeration effect of China’s overseas farmland investment began to appear after 2004,and obvious spatial differentiation has been formed locally at present.Russia and Southeast Asia have become high-high agglomeration areas;(2)The spatial variation range and degree of influence of China’s overseas farmland investment activities have undergone a process of volatile increase.The spatial variation from northwest to southeast is the most significant,and internal factors of host countries have become the key;(3)The development of China’s overseas farmland investment is significantly affected by geopolitical,geo-economic,and geo-cultural factors,including the proportion of agricultural land in the host country,the level of grain yield,the number of statements,declarations,and bulletins jointly issued with China,the number of visa-free documents of China,and the number of consular agencies in China are the six statistically significant indicators.In a situation that China’s overseas farmland investment scale has been spatially different and stable,relevant institutions should pay more attention to the protection and planning of investment for Southeast Asia and Russia.

关 键 词：海外耕地投资 空间格局 影响因素 空间回归 中国 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济] F125