犯罪影响入境旅游的实证研究  

An Empirical Study of the Crime Impact on Inbound Tourism

作　　者：魏占军 杨园园 WEI Zhanjun;YANG Yuanyuan(Business School,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang 464000,China)

机构地区：[1]信阳师范学院商学院,河南信阳464000

出　　处：《信阳师范学院学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第6期49-55,60,共8页Journal of Xinyang Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71803171);信阳师范学院“南湖学者奖励计划”青年项目。

摘　　要：基于2001—2015年中国31省区数据,实证考察了犯罪对入境旅游的影响。结果显示:首先,犯罪对入境旅游总体呈抑制作用,虽然对入境旅游人数的影响不显著,但会显著减少本地旅游外汇收入。其次,犯罪对入境旅游的影响存在空间溢出效应,表现为本地犯罪率上升,会显著增加入境旅游者流入相邻省份的概率。再次,入境旅游具有路径依赖特征,意味着犯罪对入境旅游的不利影响具有持续性。因此,旅游地应当针对犯罪对入境旅游的不利影响,通过加强犯罪治理、建立入境旅游服务机构和加强国际旅游合作等方式,促进入境旅游市场的良性发展。Based on the data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2015,this paper empirically examines the impact of crime on inbound tourism.The results show that:first,crime has an overall inhibitory effect on inbound tourism.Although the impact on the number of inbound tourists is not significant,it will significantly reduce the foreign exchange income of local tourism;second,the impact of crime on inbound tourism has a spatial spillover effect.Third,inbound tourism has the characteristics of path dependence,which means that the adverse impact of crime on inbound tourism is persistent.This paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the development of inbound tourism from the aspects of strengthening crime control,establishing inbound tourism service agencies and strengthening international tourism cooperation.

关 键 词：犯罪 入境旅游 空间动态面板 

分 类 号：F069.9[经济管理—政治经济学]