政治网红“翻转”台湾选举的路径与方法——“韩国瑜现象”的大数据研究  

The Path and Method of“Overturning”Taiwan’s Election by Political Network Celebrities:Big Data Research on“Han Kuo-yu Phenomenon”

作　　者：于强[1] YU Qiang(Department of Public Administration,University of International Relations,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院公共管理系,北京100091

出　　处：《闽台关系研究》2020年第3期9-20,共12页Research on Fujian-Taiwan Relationship

摘　　要：2018年,国民党依靠韩国瑜在网上卷起的“韩流”,赢得了台湾地区“九合一”选举。使用网络大数据,对“韩国瑜现象”的起因和过程予以剖析,研究发现:“韩国瑜现象”出现的最直接原因是民进党对韩国瑜的攻击和批评,只要民进党攻击韩国瑜,韩国瑜的网络声量立即暴涨;在造势晚会的动员效率上,韩国瑜明显优于陈其迈,韩国瑜不仅在网络声量上暴涨,在线下也成功将网络虚拟世界的“韩国瑜热”转化为最终选举结果的高得票率;选前举行的电视辩论会,对拉抬韩国瑜的网络声量更有利,对韩国瑜选情最后阶段的冲刺,起到了很大的帮助作用。The Kuomintang won the 2018“Nine-in-One”local election in Taiwan by relying on“Han Wave”that Han Kuo-yu rolled up on the Internet.This article uses big data to analyze the causes and processes of“Han Kuo-yu Phenomenon”.It finds that the most direct cause of the emergence of“Han Kuo-yu Phenomenon”is the DPP’s attack and criticism of Han Kuo-yu.As long as the DPP criticized him,the network notability of Han Kuo-yu immediately surged.After the emergence of“Han Kuo-yu Phenomenon”,the mobilization efficiency of campaign rally was obviously better than that of Chen Chi-mai,which indicates that“Han Kuo-yu Phenomenon”was not only the rise of online attention,but also had its offline influence on successfully transforming Han Kuo-yu’s spotlight of the online virtual world into the final result of the election.The TV debate held before the election was more beneficial to the promotion of Han Kuo-yu’s network attention,and had given great help in the final stage of his election.

关 键 词：韩国瑜 选举 大数据 网络声量 词频分析 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]