我国商品房价格与宏观经济的相关性研究  

Studies of the Correlation between Commercial Housing Prices and Macro-economy in China

作　　者：杜丽群 程俊霞 郜震浩 DU Li-qun;CHENG Jun-xia;GAO Zhen-hao(School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Regional Company,Beijing Capital Land,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518048,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院经济学系,北京100871 [2]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [3]首创置业股份有限公司粤港澳区域公司,广东深圳518048

出　　处：《学习与探索》2020年第10期138-146,192,共10页Study & Exploration

摘　　要：党的十九大报告提出要把人民对美好生活的向往作为奋斗目标,而作为美好生活的重要载体,房地产行业肩负着为人民实现美好生活愿望的重要使命,推动房地产行业及商品房价格稳定健康发展是稳定中国经济的根本。本文基于2008—2017年我国商品房价格与国内生产总值、通货膨胀率、货币供应量和固定资产投资四个经济指标的季度统计数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学的模型,从实证检验的角度分析了商品房价格波动与宏观经济变量之间的相关性。研究认为,货币政策对商品房价格的影响较大,在对房价的调控中货币政策应成为政府调控政策的重要手段之一;我国居民购房需求中抵抗通货膨胀的投资性需求较大,从侧面佐证了商品房已经成为我国居民主要的投资品。The report of 19th CPC National Congress pointed out that we must regard the people’s aspirations to live a better life as our goal.As an important carrier of a better life,the real estate industry takes on the important mission of realizing the people’s wishes for a better life.Promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry and commercial housing prices is the fundamental to stabilize China’s economy.This paper is based on the quarterly data of China’s commercial housing prices and four economic indicators——GDP,inflation,money supply and fixed asset investment from 2008 to 2017.We analyze the correlation between commodity housing price fluctuations and macroeconomic variables from the perspective of empirical test by using the econometric methods,such as unit root test,cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,etc.We find that the monetary policy has a great influence on the price of commercial housing,and the monetary policy should become one of the important means of government control policies in the regulation of housing prices,and on the other hand,the investment demand of resisting inflation is relatively large in the people’s demand of housing purchase in China,which proves that commercial housing has become the main investment product of Chinese residents.

关 键 词：商品房价格 宏观经济 货币政策 经济增长 房地产行业 居民投资品 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]