6个地震死亡人数快速预测模型与中国大陆地震实际死亡人数的相关分析  

Correlation analysis between six earthquake death prediction models and actual fatalities from China's Mainland earthquakes

作　　者：陶梦娇 王傲宇 周诗涵 陆天怡 胡海[3,4,5] TAO Mengjiao;WANG Aoyu;ZHOU Shihan;LU Tianyi;HU Hai(West China Medical School of Sichuan University,Chengdu Sichuan 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西临床医学院,四川成都610041 [2]四川大学华西灾难医学协会 [3]四川大学华西医院应急办公室 [4]中国国际应急医疗队(四川) [5]紧急医学救援综合基地(四川)办公室

出　　处：《中国急救复苏与灾害医学杂志》2020年第10期1168-1172,共5页China Journal of Emergency Resuscitation and Disaster Medicine

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(编号:XDA23090502)。

摘　　要：目的 探讨不同震级条件下地震死亡人数模型的应用价值,指导震后救援工作开展.方法 回顾性比较21世纪以来中国大陆发生的代表性地震,统计各地震中实际伤亡人数.比较分析现使用较广的六组震级-死亡人数模型对预测地震死亡人数的准确程度,得到相关系数并分析相关结果.结果 共纳入有效震例23例,对于震级≥5.0级且≤6.5级的中强震及强震,各模型相关性结果均无统计学意义;对于震级>6.5级且≤8.0级大地震及特大地震,地震伤亡分析与预测模型相关性最高,相关系数为0.822,具有统计学意义;对于整体震例,中国古今灾情汇总模型相关性最高,相关系数为0.488.结论 对于震级>6.5级且≤8.0级并造成一定伤亡的地震,中国古今灾情汇总模型预测效果好,准确性高;而对于震级较小的地震,所纳入模型均无法准确预测地震死亡人数.Objective To explore the application value of the formula for the mortality in earthquakes under different magnitudes and to guide the posl-earthquake rescue work.Methods A retrospeetive comparison of 23 earthquakes in China's Mainland since the 21st century was conducted.All the predictive formulas were evaluated based on death cases in every earthquake,using correlation curves to compare the correlation.Results For earthquakes with magnitudes≥5.0 and≤6.5,the errelations of the formulas were staistically insignificant.For earthquakes with magnitudes>6.5 and≤8.0,the highest correlation cofficient of the formula was 0.822,which was statistically significant.For the whole earthquake case,the correlation coefficient of the ancient and moderm disaster aggregation model was 0.488.Conclu-sion For earthquakes with magnitudes>6.5 and≤8.0,the Chinese ancient and moderm disaster summary formula has the best prediction degree and the highest accuracy.For earthquakes with smaller magnitudes,the ineluded formulas cannot precisely predict the number of earthquake death.

关 键 词：震害损失评估 地震灾害分级 快速评估 初判标准 死亡人口 

分 类 号：R129[医药卫生—环境卫生学]