地形对降水的影响机理及预报方法研究进展  

Advances in the Study of the Influencing Mechanism and Forecast Methods for Orographic Precipitation

作　　者：钟水新[1] ZHONG Shuixin(Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510080,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510080

出　　处：《高原气象》2020年第5期1122-1132,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506901);国家自然科学基金项目(41505084);广州市科技计划项目(201804020038)。

摘　　要：本文分别从观测试验分析研究、地形降水物理机制以及地形降水模拟与可预报性研究等方面回顾了近年来对地形降水观测、数值模拟和预报方法方面取得的进展。概括了近些年来开展的若干地形降水观测试验、数值模式的若干线性地形降水方案,以及模式中次网格地形参数化效应对地形降水预报的影响。回顾了包括地形维度与几何分布、水汽分布及水汽凝结效应、大气稳定性等对地形降水的影响机制,并基于线性地形降水方案,综合考虑了次网格地形阻塞效应和大气降水概率因子,利用GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)模式检验了新简化线性地形降水参数化方案的应用情况。指出对地形降水机理研究和预报技术的改进,需进一步开展多种地形观测试验和多源资料机理分析,研究不同尺度天气系统在多尺度复杂地形下的相互作用,改进数值模式动力、物理精度以及资料同化理论技术,以期提高对地形降水的认识水平和数值模拟能力。An overview of orographic precipitation(OP)is presented,including the experimental studies,physic mechanism and its forecasting methods.The effects of orographic dimension and geometry,water vapor condensation and atmospheric stability on OP are summarized,as well as the progress on the linear OP model,topographic parameterization and its forecasting methods.The current challenges of research on OP are summarized.The improvement of the research on the mechanism of OP and the forecasting methods need to further carry out a variety of topographic observation experiments and analysis of mechanisms based on multi-source data.Furthermore,a new simplified OP parameterization scheme(SOP)is evaluated based on a linear orographic precipitation scheme by considering both the sub-grid topographic blocking effects and the probability of atmospheric precipitation.The application of the SOP scheme is implemented based on GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System).The results show that the SOP scheme could predict the extreme OP over the mountainous terrain and capture the weak precipitation over the lee side of the mountain.Seasonal experiments showed that the intensity and distribution of the simulated OP had some typical correspondences with surface observations over the mountainous terrain.The SOP scheme provides useful reference values for the precipitation forecast over complex terrain,and also help to better predict the OP especially when the model underestimate the precipitation from microphysics scheme over the mountainous terrain.Further researches are needed to study the interaction of the weather systems under multi-scale complex terrain,and to improve the theoretical technology of numerical model dynamics,physical process and data assimilation,so as to improve the understanding of influencing mechanism and forecast methods for orographic precipitation.

关 键 词：地形降水 GRAPES 地形降水参数化 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]