计及相关性的电-气互联区域综合能源系统概率多能流计算  

Correlation-based Probabilistic Multi-energy Flow Calculation of Regional Integrated Energy System with Combined Electricity and Natural Gas

作　　者：黎晨阳 张沈习[1] 程浩忠[1] 宋毅 原凯 吕佳炜 LI Chenyang;ZHANG Shenxi;CHENG Haozhong;SONG Yi;YUAN Kai;LYU Jiawei(Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion,Ministry of Education(Shanghai Jiao Tong University),Shanghai 200240,China;State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China)

机构地区：[1]电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学),上海市200240 [2]国网经济技术研究院有限公司,北京市102209

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2020年第21期42-49,共8页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会-国家电网公司智能电网联合基金资助项目(U1966206);国家电网公司科技项目(SGTJJY00GHJS1900040)。

摘　　要：可再生能源的规模化接入增加了电-气互联区域综合能源系统中的不确定性,同时随着电力系统和天然气系统耦合程度的加深,耦合环节负荷的波动对整个电-气互联区域综合能源系统能流产生的影响日趋显著。首先,建立基于能源集线器模型的电-气互联区域综合能源系统稳态多能流计算模型;在此基础上,考虑可再生能源出力、电力系统负荷、天然气系统负荷和耦合环节负荷的波动性,并计及电力系统负荷和天然气系统负荷间的相关性,提出电-气互联区域综合能源系统中输出状态变量半不变量的计算方法;最后使用Cornish-Fisher级数展开法来拟合输出状态变量,得到输出状态变量的概率分布。在修改后的IEEE 33节点配电网络与天然气11节点网络耦合而成的电-气互联区域综合能源系统上进行算例分析,验证了所提方法的有效性、快速性和实用性,同时分析了耦合环节负荷不同波动水平和电力系统负荷与天然气系统负荷间相关性水平对概率多能流计算结果的影响。The large-scale integration of renewable energy resources increases the uncertainty in regional integrated energy systems(RIES)with combined electricity and natural gas.With the increase of coupling degree between power systems and natural gas systems,the impact of load fluctuation of the coupling part on the energy flow of RIES becomes more and more significant.First,a steady state multi-energy flow model is established based on the energy hub model.On this basis,considering the volatility of power load,natural gas load,coupling part load,and output of renewable energy sources and correlation between power load and natural gas load,a computation method of the state variables in RIES is proposed.Second,Cornish-Fisher expansion is used to fit the probability distribution of the state variables.Case studies are implemented in the combined modified IEEE 33-bus and natural-gas 11-bus system,and the proposed method is proven to be fast,effective and accurate.At the same time,the impact of different coupling part load fluctuation degrees and correlation levels between power load and natural gas load on multi-energy flow of RIES is analyzed.

关 键 词：区域综合能源系统 电-气互联系统 相关性 半不变量法 概率多能流 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]