河北省鸭梨价格波动规律及影响因素分析  

Analysis on Fluctuation Law and Influencing Factors of Yali Pear Price in Hebei Province

作　　者：王聪聪[1,2] 赵青 马晓萍 杜晓东[2] 王俊芹[1] WANG Congcong;ZHAO Qing;MA Xiaoping;DU Xiaodong;WANG Junqin(College of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071000,China;Institute of AgriculturalInformation and Economics,Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050051,China;Characteristic Industry Division of Agriculture and Rural Department of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071000 [2]河北省农林科学院农业信息与经济研究所,河北石家庄050051 [3]河北省农业农村厅特色产业处,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《山西农业科学》2020年第11期1856-1860,共5页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河北省现代农业产业技术体系水果产业创新团队产业经济岗位项目(HBCT2018100301);河北省农林科学院创新工程项目(2019-4-9-5);教育部梨工程技术研究中心建设项目。

摘　　要：鸭梨是河北省主要水果,其价格波动直接影响梨农的经济效益。基于2012-2019年河北省鸭梨月度价格数据,采用X-12季节调整模型和H-P滤波法,对河北省鸭梨价格波动规律和影响因素进行分析。结果表明,季节成分和随机因素对鸭梨价格波动影响显著;鸭梨价格波动呈长期上升趋势,且具有一定的周期性;产量受气候条件等因素影响呈不稳定状态,对鸭梨价格波动影响较大。研究提出河北省鸭梨应加强规模化生产、新品种研发、冷库仓储设施和风险防控机制建设,以进一步稳定生产,促进鸭梨市场价格的稳定。As the main fruit in Hebei province,the price fluctuation of Yali pear directly affected the economic benefits of fruit growers.Based on the monthly price data of Yali in Hebei province from 2012 to 2019,the fluctuation law and influencing factors of Yali pear price in Hebei province were analyzed by using X-12 seasonal adjustment model and H-P filtering method.The results showed that seasonal components and random factors had significant effects on the fluctuation of Yali pear price.The fluctuation of Yali pear price showed a long-term upward trend and had a certain periodicity.The yield was unstable under the influence of climate conditions and other factors,which had a greater impact on the fluctuation of Yali pear price.To further stabilize the production and promote the stability of Yali pear market price,Hebei province should strengthen the large-scale production,research and development new varieties,cold storage facilities and risk prevention and control mechanism construction.

关 键 词：鸭梨 价格波动 影响因素 X-12季节调整模型 H-P滤波法 河北省 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]