河北省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征与时空聚集性分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of COVID-19 in Hebei Province

作　　者：刘廷轩 齐畅 佘凯丽 贾艳 朱雨辰 李春雨 刘利利 王旭 章志华[2] 李秀君 LIU Tingxuan;QI Chang;SHE Kaili;JIA Yan;ZHU Yuchen;LI Chunyu;LIU Lili;WANG Xu;ZHANG Zhihua;LI Xiujun(Department of Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Cheeloo College of Medicine,Shandong University,Jinan 250012,Shandong,China;Department of Science and Education,Hebei Chest Hospital,Shijiazhuang 050041,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院生物统计学系,山东济南250012 [2]河北省胸科医院科教处,河北石家庄050041

出　　处：《山东大学学报（医学版）》2020年第10期74-81,共8页Journal of Shandong University:Health Sciences

基　　金：山东大学新冠肺炎应急攻关科研专项(2020XGC01);国家自然科学基金(81673238);国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1200500,2019YFC1200502)。

摘　　要：目的通过对河北省新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行特征与时空聚集性进行分析,为河北省疫情防控及相关政策的制定提供科学依据。方法收集河北省2020年1月22日至2月27日COVID-19疫情数据,揭示该省疫情的流行特征;采用时空扫描的方法对疫情的聚集性进行分析。结果2020年1月22日河北省石家庄市报告首例COVID-19确诊病例,截至2月27日全省共报告COVID-19病例318例,其中包括湖北(含武汉)输入病例80例(25.16%),武汉输入病例69例(21.70%);全省病例男女比例为1.06∶1,30~69岁(70.76%);2月5日至2月10日为疫情高峰期,2月7日单日最高确诊24例,随后确诊病例逐渐下降,截至3月12日已连续14 d无新增确诊病例;河北省11个地市均发现COVID-19疫情,疫情覆盖范围达河北省82个区(县)(82/175,46.86%),其中疫情最严重的区(县)为唐山市迁安市(30例);11个地市均发生了聚集性疫情,共发现聚集性病例239例,其中110例(46.03%)是家庭聚集性传播导致。唐山市迁西县、遵化市及迁安市的时空聚集性最高,聚集时间为2月5日至2月15日(RR=15.69,LLR=61.75,P<0.01)。结论河北省COVID-19疫情为全人群普遍易感,早期以境内省外输入性病例(以下简称"输入性病例")为主,后期以本地病例为主,全省聚集性疫情占2/3,未发现医务人员感染,国家启动一级响应后,目前疫情已得到有效控制,但随着复工复学的逐步推进和境外输入病例、无症状感染者的增加,仍需加强常态化疫情防控,巩固疫情防控向好态势。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Hebei Province in order to provide scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control measures.Methods Data of COVID-19 epidemic in Hebei Province from Jan.22 to Feb.27,2020 were collected to analyze the epidemic characteristics.The clustering of epidemic was analyzed with spatial-temporal scanning.Results On Jan.22,the first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported in Shijiazhuang City.As of Feb.27,a total of 318 cases were reported in the whole province,including 80 imported cases(25.16%)from Hubei(including Wuhan),and 69 imported cases(21.70%)from Wuhan.The ratio of males to females was 1.06∶1.Patients aged 30 to 69 years accounted for 70.76%of the total.The peak period of epidemic outbreak was Feb.5 to Feb.10,with a maximum of 24 cases reported in a single day on Feb.7,and then the number of cases gradually decreased.As of Mar.12,there had been no new confirmed cases for 14 consecutive days.COVID-19 epidemic was found in 11 prefectures and cities in Hebei Province,including 82 districts/counties(82/175,46.86%),of which the most severely affected was Qian’an City(30 cases).A total of 239 clustering outbreaks were reported in all 11 prefectures and cities,110(46.03%)of which were caused by family clusters.Qianxi County of Tangshan City,Zunhua City and Qian’an City had the highest spatial-temporal clustering,and the clustering time was from Feb.5 to 15(RR=15.69,LLR=61.75,P<0.01).Conclusion The entire population is susceptible to COVID-19.The early cases were mainly imported from other provinces,and in the later stage,cases were mainly local.Clustering outbreaks accounted for 2/3 of the total.No medical staff were infected.When the state initiated a first-level response,the epidemic had been effectively controlled.However,with the resumption of work and school and the increase of imported cases from abroad and asymptomatic infections,it is still necessary to strengthen

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 河北省 流行特征 时空聚集性 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]