基于均衡理论的森林火灾险费率厘定与分区  

Determination and Regionalization of Forest Fire Risk Rate in China Based on Equilibrium Theory

作　　者：富丽莎 潘焕学[1] 秦涛[1] 张晞 FU Li-sha;PAN Huan-xue;QIN Tao;ZHANG Xi(College of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2020年第11期730-743,共14页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“基于风险区划的中国森林火灾险费率厘定研究”(71403022);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“森林保险精准扶贫效应评估与机制优化研究”(20YJA790059);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“森林保险补贴规模测度与政策优化”(JGZKPY005,2015ZCQ-JG-01)。

摘　　要：为实现森林火灾险费率的精细化厘定,基于均衡理论,以全国29个省(市、区)为研究区,选取1993-2018年数据,从投保林农期望效用与林业灾害风险出发,探讨能够满足供求双方均衡的森林火灾险费率厘定原理,并据此对Holecy模型进行改进,以解决原有模型中分布参数模型局限于Weibull分布与变量不符合实际的问题;利用改进后的Holecy模型对森林火灾险费率进行测算与分区,并将分区结果与实际年均赔付率进行对比。结果表明:各地森林火灾期望纯费率、风险纯费率以及纯费率存在较大差别,在100%参保率下,纯费率由0.164‰到52.955‰不等,最低为甘肃省,最高为黑龙江省;森林火灾险纯费率水平与参保率呈负相关,费率水平随参保率的上升而下降,且参保率对高风险地区的影响更为显著;依据纯费率测算值将研究区划分为高风险区、中风险区、较低风险区和低风险区4个等级,分区结果与年均赔付率分区有一定的吻合性,赔付的差异性表明了森林火灾费率差别化厘定与风险区划的必要性和合理性。Scientific and reasonable rate determination could effectively promote the enthusiasm of both supply and demand sides in the forest fire insurance market,which is an important basis for the fine development of forest fire insurance products.In order to achieve the fine-grained determination of the forest fire insurance rate in China,based on the equilibrium theory and the related data of forest fire insurance from 1993 to 2018,29 provinces(cities,districts)in China were selected as the research areas,starting from the expected utility of insured forest farmers and the risk of forest disasters,the principle of determining forest fire insurance rate that could meet the balance between supply and demand was discussed.Based on this,the Holecy model was improved to solve the problem that the distribution parameter model in the original model is limited to Weibull distribution and the variables don’t conform to the reality.The improved Holecy model was used to calculate and partition the forest fire insurance rate,and the results were compared with the actual average annual compensation ratio.The results showed that,firstly,there was a big difference in the expected pure rate of forest fire insurance among different regions based on the improved Holecy model,Tibet had the lowest expected pure rate of 0.0093‰,while Heilongjiang had the highest expected pure rate of 51.7641‰.Meanwhile,the risk pure rate of forest fire insurance varied greatly from region to region,under the condition of 100% participation rate,the risk pure rate of Heilongjiang was the highest,at 4.107‰,while that of Anhui was less than 0.001‰.And the risk pure rate of forest fire insurance was higher on the whole,which indicated that it’s necessary to reflect the annual risk and disaster loss difference among different regions through the pure risk premium rate.Moreover,the pure rate of forest fire insurance calculated by the sum of the expected pure rate and the risk pure rate of each region also had great differences.Under the 100% partici

关 键 词：森林火灾险 Holecy模型 纯费率 费率厘定 费率分区 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]