白化权函数已知的区间灰数Verhulst预测模型  

Verhulst Prediction Model of Interval Grey Number with Whitening Weight Function

作　　者：李晔[1] 丁圆苹 LI Ye;DING Yuan-ping(College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450002,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2020年第20期308-314,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：河南省软科学研究计划项目(182400410375);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(20A630015);河南省高等学校人文社会科学研究一般项目(2020-ZDJH-140)。

摘　　要：针对灰色Verhulst预测模型无法进行白化权函数已知的区间灰数预测的问题,首先将区间灰数标准化处理,对白部和灰部序列分别建立Verhulst模型进行预测;然后将白化权函数进行标准化处理,并对函数重心序列建立GM(1,1)模型估计预测值的白化权函数,构建白化权函数已知的区间灰数Verhulst预测模型.最后将模型应用于凌期的黄河宁蒙段巴彦高勒站的日均流量预测,实例表明所建模型精度较高,具有有效性与合理性.In order to solve the problem that the Verhulst grey prediction model cannot predict the interval grey number with whitening weight function,firstly,standardizing the interval grey number,and establishing the Verhulst model to predict the sequence of white part and grey part respectively.Then the whitening weight function is standardized,and the center of gravity sequence of the function is modeled in GM(1,1)to estimate the whitening weight function of the predicted value,the Verhulst prediction model with known whitening weight function is constructed.Finally,the model is applied to the daily flow forecast of Bayangaole station in Ningmeng section of the Yellow River in frozen period.Comparing the result with other model,this proposed model in this paper has a high precision and practicability.

关 键 词：区间灰数 VERHULST模型 白化权函数 灰色系统理论 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]