基于有限理性路径决策的人员疏散双层模型  

Bi-level evacuation modeling considering boundedly rational route choice behavior

作　　者：马剑[1,2] 王翔 肖修昆[3] MA Jian;WANG Xiang;XIAO Xiukun(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Chengdu 610031,China;Shenzhen Institute of University of Science and Technology of China,Shenzhen 518057,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都610031 [2]综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,成都610031 [3]中国科学技术大学深圳研究院,深圳518057

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2020年第10期2698-2706,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2017YFC0804900);国家自然科学基金(71871189,71473207)。

摘　　要：人员在疏散过程中难以获得关于疏散路径的全部信息,因此,确定疏散路径时仅能选取满意的而非最优的疏散路径.考虑疏散人员所能获知的疏散路径长度、拥挤程度和危险程度信息构建了人员疏散双层模型.该模型包括上层的人员路径选择模块和下层的人员空间移动模块,分别刻画了个体的有限理性路径选择行为和疏散运动过程.通过实例仿真,分析了出口宽度和有限理性参数对疏散人员路径选择和疏散时间的影响规律,结果可为建筑设计和疏散应急管理提供一定的依据.During evacuation process,it is difficult for evacuee to obtain all routes’information.They as a consequence could only choose the satisfactory evacuation route instead of the optimal one.In the present paper,holding the assumption that evacuee only know the information of route length,congestion and hazard level,the bi-level evacuation model,which includes the individual route choice module in upper-level and individual space movement in lower-level,was developed to describe the boundedly rational route choice behavior and evacuation movement.Simulations were performed,based on which the effect of exit width and bounded rationality parameter on pedestrian routing choice and evacuation time were investigated.The results may provide some basis for building design and evacuation emergency management.

关 键 词：人员疏散 路径选择 空间移动 有限理性 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]