新冠肺炎疫情对我国化石能源供需格局的影响分析  

Analysis of the influence of COVID-19 on the pattern of fossil energy supply and demand in China

作　　者：孙晓艳[1,2] 段红梅 闫强[2] 连文威[3] SUN Xiaoyan;DUAN Hongmei;YAN Qiang;LIAN Wenwei(School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;Beijing Century Grand Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100035,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083 [2]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037 [3]北京世纪国源科技股份有限公司,北京100035

出　　处：《中国矿业》2020年第11期1-6,共6页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：地质矿产调查评价项目“国际能源政治热点事件追踪与分析”资助(编号:12120115057001);地质矿产调查评价项目“我国紧缺矿产资源保障与全球布局战略”资助(编号:DD20190199)。

摘　　要：能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的物质基础,在国民经济中具有重要的战略地位。新冠疫情在全球范围内的大流行将改变能源格局。后疫情时代,挑战与机遇并存,对比分析新冠疫情对我国能源格局的影响和变化趋势,对支撑国家能源形势判断与决策具有重要意义。本文在国内外能源智库专家观点的基础上,梳理并分析了新冠疫情对我国化石能源供需格局的影响,并通过设定不同情景(疫情情景、非疫情情景)对我国2020—2030年的能源需求进行预测。提出后疫情时代我国能源格局将会呈现供需短期波动和长期渐趋稳定、能源转型(结构化、空间化)迎来机遇的变化。我国应在做好应对疫情挑战的基础上,抓住后疫情时代能源转型深化的新机遇,在能源转型、能源政策灵活性、油气核心需求保障、科技创新和国际能源合作等重要领域开展工作。Energy is the material basis for the survival and development of human society and has an important strategic position in the national economy.The global pandemic of COVID-19 will change the energy pattern.In the post-epidemic era,challenges and opportunities coexist,and a comparative analysis of the impact and changing trend of the epidemic on China's energy landscape is of great significance for supporting national energy situation judgment and decision-making.Based on the views of experts from energy think tanks at home and abroad,this paper combs and analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on China's fossil energy supply and demand pattern,and forecasts China's energy demand from 2020 to 2030 by setting different scenarios(epidemic situation and non epidemic situation).In the post-epidemic era,China's energy pattern will show short-term fluctuations in supply and demand and long-term stability,and energy transformation(structured and spatialized)will usher in opportunities.On the basis of responding to the challenges of the epidemic,China should seize the new opportunities for deepening the energy transformation in the post-epidemic era,and work in key areas such as energy transformation,energy policy flexibility,oil and gas core demand guarantee,technological innovation,and international energy cooperation.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 化石能源 供需格局 机遇与挑战 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济]