黔东南州冰雹灾害风险评估与区划  

Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Hail Disaster in Qiandongnan Prefecture

作　　者：蒋汉开 张小娟 龙安华 龙源 陈晓丹 JIANG Hankai;ZHANG Xiaojuan;LONG Anhua;LONG Yuan;CHEN Xiaodan

机构地区：[1]贵州省黔东南州人工影响天气作业指挥中心,贵州凯里556000 [2]贵州省人工影响天气办公室,贵州贵阳550002 [3]贵州省黔东南州黎平县气象局,贵州黎平522631

出　　处：《科技创新与应用》2020年第35期55-58,共4页Technology Innovation and Application

摘　　要：文章选取黔东南州16个县市年均降雹日数、人口密度、耕地比重、经济作物种植比重、人均GDP、高炮保护作物面积占耕地比重、人影运行保障经费等7个指标作为致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力3个因子的评价指标,通过层次分析法赋予各指标权重,采用加权综合评价法构建各因子综合评价指数,构建黔东南州冰雹灾害风险评估模型,利用ArcGIS功能初步建立黔东南州冰雹灾害风险区划。由区划结果可知,黔东南州冰雹灾害风险普遍较大,中高风险区涵盖12个县市,冰雹灾害风险总体趋势为北部地区风险较高,南部地区较低;北部部分地区风险远高于其他地区,主要是该区域致灾因子危险性较高和易损性较高;南部地区风险相对较小,主要是致灾危险性较小;通过建立风险区划,以期为当地作业点优化布局及防雹减灾决策提供一些具有指导意义的参考依据,减少冰雹灾害带来的损失。In this paper,seven indexes,such as the average annual hail days,population density,the proportion of cultivated land,the proportion of cash crops,the per capita GDP,the proportion of crop area protected by antiaircraft artillery in cultivated land,and the funds for ensuring the operation of people,are selected as the evaluation indexes of the risk of disaster factors,the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies and the ability of disaster prevention and reduction.Through analytic hierarchy process(AHP),weighted comprehensive evaluation method was used to construct various factors comprehensive evaluation index and build Qiandongnan Prefecture's hail disaster risk assessment model,and the function of ArcGISfor the purpose of the preliminary establishment of Qiandongnan Prefecturehail disaster risk zoning.According to the regionalization results,hail disaster risks are generally large in Qiandongnan Prefecture,and the medium-high risk areas cover 12 counties and cities.The overall trend of hail disaster risk is higher in the northern region and lower in the southern region.The risk in the northern part is much higher than that in other areas,mainly due to the high risk and vulnerability of the disaster-causing factors.The risk in the southern region is relatively small,mainly due to the low risk of disaster.By establishing the risk zoning,it is expected to provide some guiding references for optimizing the layout of local operation sites and decision-making of hail prevention and disaster reduction,so as to reduce the losses caused by hail disaster.

关 键 词：冰雹灾害 风险评估模型 风险区划 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]