CMIP5和RegCM4.0模式对西南区域未来降水的预估  

Prediction of Future Precipitation in Southwest China by CMIP5 and RegCM4.0 Models

作　　者：胡祖恒 李永华[1] 胡跃文 王勇[1] HU Zuheng;LI Yonghua;HU Yuewen;WANG Yong(Chongqing Climate Center,Chongqing 401147,China;Guizhou Meteorological Society,Guiyang 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [2]贵州省气象学会,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《中低纬山地气象》2020年第5期19-25,共7页Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFE0196000):能源与水纽带关系及高效绿色利用关键技术;国家自然科学基金面上项目(41875111):西南地区东部夏季降水的水汽输送特征再研究;国家自然科学基金项目(40975058):亚洲夏季风子系统影响域变化及其对西南地区东部夏季旱涝的影响。

摘　　要：利用CMIP5全球模式数据集和RegCM4.0区域气候模式进行连续积分获得的模拟数据,对西南区域未来在RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5几种温室气体排放情景下年平均降雨、四季降水,极端降雨事件的特征及其相对历史基准期的变化进行预估。结果表明,不同RCP情景下西南区域降水都将呈持续上升趋势,3种情景下西南区域降水在2020—2050年变化特征差别较小,2050年后差别较大,RCP2.6情景下降水变化幅度最小,CMIP5和RegCM4.0模式模拟的西南区域降水变化的地理分布特征基本一致,降水的高值区都位于青藏高原东南部,横断山脉和四川中部,差异在于RegCM4.0模拟的西藏西部的降雨量级更小,而青藏高原东南部、四川中部和贵州的降雨高值区量级更大。未来近期2020—2060年和远期2061—2099年RCP4.5情景下暴雨天数显著减少的区域主要在西藏东南部(0.5~1 d),未来远期2061—2099年RCP4.5情景云南南部和贵州东部区域暴雨天数显著性增加,而RCP8.5情景下上述区域暴雨天数显著性减少。The characteristics of annual average rainfall,four-season rainfall and extreme rainfall events and their changes in comparison with the historical base period under several greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the southwest region in the future are predicted by using CMIP5 global model data set and RegCM4.0 regional climate model,the results show that the precipitation in the southwest region will continue to rise under different RCP scenarios.The variation characteristics of the precipitation in the southwest region under the three scenarios are relatively small from 2020 to 2050,and are relatively large after 2050.The variation amplitude of the falling water under RCP2.6 scenario is the smallest.The geographical distribution characteristics of the precipitation changes in the southwest region simulated by CMIP5 and RegCM4.0 models are basically the same.The high value regions of precipitation are all located in the southeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The difference between Hengduan mountain range and central Sichuan lies in that the rainfall level simulated by RegCM4.0 is smaller in western Tibet,while the high-value areas in southeast Qinghai-Tibet plateau,central Sichuan and Guizhou are larger in magnitude.The regions with significant reduction in rainstorm days under RCP4.5 scenarios in 2020—2060 and 2061—2099 are mainly in southeast Tibet(0.5~1 day),the rainstorm days in southern Yunnan and eastern Guizhou are significantly increased with RCP4.5 scenario,however,the rainstorm days in southern Yunnan and eastern Guizhou are significantly reduced with RCP8.5 scenario.

关 键 词：西南区域 未来降水预估 CMIP5 REGCM 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]