大都市带基础设施、城市规模与城市经济增长--一个中介效应与调节效应的综合分析框架  

Infrastructure,City Size and City Economic Growth in Megalopolis:A Comprehensive Analysis Framework of Mediating Effect and Moderating Effect

作　　者：胡晨光 孙久文[2] 王婷婷[1] HU Chen-guang;SUN Jiu-wen;WANG Ting-ting(School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China;School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China,Bejing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经济学院,浙江杭州310023 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国软科学》2020年第10期85-95,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(16BJL123)。

摘　　要：本文通过中介效应和调节效应的综合分析框架,从理论与实证层面,研究大都市带基础设施通过城市规模的中介效应,以及基础设施通过调节城市规模的调节效应影响城市经济增长的内在机理。在测算中国环渤海、长三角、华南三大都市带城市基础设施存量的基础上,以三大都市带为例的实证研究发现:(1)大都市带城市规模构成基础设施促进城市经济增长的中介变量,但这一中介效应在三大都市带存在差异;(2)大都市带城市基础设施调节城市规模促进城市经济增长的调节效应在华南和环渤海得到支持,在长三角这一效应为负但不显著;(3)大都市带城市基础设施存在通过城市规模和城市投资的链式中介效应或多重中介效应影响城市经济增长的机制,控制上述效应后,城市基础设施对城市产出增长的弹性下降;(4)大都市带最优城市规模受基础设施的调节作用因其对城市规模的集聚经济、集聚不经济等状况影响不同而存在差异。本研究对中国大都市带建设具有重要理论借鉴与实践参考价值。Based on the comprehensive analysis framework of mediating effect and moderating effect,this paper studies the inner mechanism of infrastructure to the city economic growth through the mediating effect of city size,and moderating effect of infrastructure to city size from the theoretical and empirical aspects.On the basis of the calculation of the city infrastructure stock of China’s three megalopolises,namely Bohai rim,Yangtze river delta and south China,the empirical study with the three megalopolises as an example finds that:(1)The city size of the megalopolis constitutes an mediating variable for infrastructure to promote city economic growth,but these mediating effects are different in the three megalopolises.(2)The moderating effect of city infrastructure regulating city size and promoting city economic growth in megalopolis was confirmed in South China and Bohai Rim,but was negative and insignificant in the Yangtze River Delta.(3)There is a mechanism of city infrastructure affecting city economic growth through the chain mediating effect or multiple mediating effect of city size and city investment.After controlling the above effects,the elasticity of city infrastructure to city output growth decreases.(4)The optimal city size of the megalopolis is moderated by the effect of the agglomeration economy or agglomeration diseconomy of city size which is affected by the infrastructure of city.This study has important theoretical and practical reference value for the construction of China’s megalopolises.

关 键 词：大都市带 基础设施 城市规模 城市经济增长 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]