非线性视角下中国城市房价关联效应测度与分析  

Measurement and Analysis of Correlation Effect of Urban Housing Price under the Nonlinear Perspective

作　　者：陈明华[1] 王山 刘文斐 刘玉鑫 CHEN Ming-hua;WANG Shan;LIU Wen-fei;LIU Yu-xin(School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China;Wang Yannan Institute of Economics,Xiamen University,Fujian 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南250014 [2]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《中国软科学》2020年第10期96-106,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BJY087);山东省社会科学规划研究项目(20CJJJ29);山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划(2020RWE001)。

摘　　要：文章基于2011年1月至2018年7月中国70大中城市的新建商品住宅销售价格同比指数和二手住宅销售价格同比指数,从非线性视角运用Granger因果关系检验、滚动窗口技术、社会网络分析方法,对中国城市房价关联效应进行测度与分析。研究发现:(1)在人口迁移、空间套利、心理预期等因素的影响下,中国城市房价关联效应显著,呈现早期短暂减弱而后持续增强的演进趋势。其中,中部地区城市间房价关联效应最强,东部次之,西部相对较弱;一线城市房价关联效应依次强于二、三线城市。新建商品住房价格关联效应较强,呈现先短暂减弱而后波动增强的变化趋势;二手住房价格关联效应相对较弱,呈现波动减弱的变化趋势。(2)东中西部地区之间、一二三线城市之间,房价均具有较高的联通性。其中,东中部地区之间的联通性依次高于中西部地区之间、东西部地区之间的联通性,二三线城市之间的联通性依次高于一二线城市之间、一三线城市之间的联通性。(3)新建商品住房市场和二手住房市场的大、中、小户型之间普遍存在房价传导关系。其中,新建大户型和二手中户型在房价关联网络中扮演着"中心行动者"角色,具有较强的"引领"作用,是需要重点调控的对象。Based on the new commercial housing price year-on-year index and the second-hand housing price year-on-year index of Chinese 70 large and medium cities from January 2011 to July 2018,the paper uses Granger causality test,rolling window technology and social network analysis from the nonlinear perspective.The method is to measure and analyze the correlation effect of urban house price.The research finds that:(1)Under the influence of population migration,spatial arbitrage,psychological expectation and other factors,the correlation effect of urban housing price is significant.Although there is a short weakening in the early stage,it shows an evolutionary trend of continuous increasing thereafter.Among them,the correlation effect of urban housing price is strongest in the central region,followed by that in the east and relatively weak in the west.The correlation effect of urban housing price in first-tier cities is stronger than that in second-tier and third-tier cities.The correlation effect of new commercial housing price is strong,showing a trend of temporarily weakening and then increasing volatility.The correlation effect of second-hand housing price is relatively weak,showing a trend of decreasing volatility.(2)Between the three regions and between the first,second and third-tier cities,housing price have strong connectivity.Among them,the connectivity between the eastern and central regions is stronger than that between the central and western regions,and between the eastern and western regions;the connectivity between the second and third-tier cities is stronger than that between the first and second-tier cities,and between the first and third-tier cities.(3)The conduction relationship of housing price generally exists between the large,medium and small houses of the new commercial housing market and the second-hand housing market.Among them,the new large house and the second-hand medium house play the role of"central actor"in the housing price transmission network,and have a strong"leading"effect,which is t

关 键 词：非线性Granger因果关系 城市房价关联 社会网络分析 滚动窗口技术 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]