基于水资源系统可持续性的南水北调进京规模分析  

Analysis of water transfer scale of South-to-North Water Diversion Project based on sustainability of water resources system

作　　者：刘寒青 刘静[1] 赵建世 李海红[1] 赵勇[1] 王丽珍[1] 龙爱华[1] LIU Hanqing;LIU Jing;ZHAO Jianshi;LI Haihong;ZHAO Yong;WANG Lizhen;LONGAihua(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《水资源保护》2020年第6期99-105,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401407);中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(WR0145B622017);国家自然科学基金(516009260)。

摘　　要：基于水资源系统可持续性评价的基本理论与方法,分析了不同供水条件和需水方案下北京市2025年水资源系统可持续性和南水北调对北京市未来水资源系统可持续性的影响,并从可持续性角度确定了不同发展情景下南水北调调水规模的阈值。结果表明:南水北调可总体改善北京市未来水资源系统可持续性,但在较高需水方案下或丹江口水库遭遇特枯水年时,北京市水资源系统可持续性状况不容乐观;未来应在科学制定需水方案的基础上合理增大南水北调调水规模,加强应急保障措施和资源战略储备,提升北京市水资源系统可持续性,实现首都水资源可持续发展。Based on the basic theory and method of water resources system sustainability evaluation,we analyzed the water resources system sustainability of Beijing in 2025 under different water supply conditions and water demand schemes,and studied the impact of South-to-North Water Diversion(SNWD)on the future water resources system sustainability of Beijing,as well as determined the threshold value of water transfer scale of SNWD under different development scenarios from the perspective of sustainability.The results showed that SNWD can improve the future water resources system sustainability of Beijing in general.However,the sustainability of water resources system in Beijing is not optimistic under high water demand schemes or when the Danjiangkou Reservoir encounters an extremely dry year.In the future,we should reasonably increase the water transfer scale of SNWD and strengthen the emergency safeguard measures and strategic reserve of water resources on the basis of scientifically formulating water demand schemes,so as to improve the sustainability of water resources system and realize the sustainable development of water resources in Beijing.

关 键 词：水资源系统 南水北调 调水规模 可供水量 需水量 可持续性评价 北京 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]