基于半定量评价结果的管道失效概率修正方法  

CORRECTION METHOD OF PIPELINE FAILURE PROBABILITY BASED ON SEMI-QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION RESULTS

作　　者：张强[1] 杨玉锋[1,2] 张希祥 刘硕[1] 贾韶辉[1] Zhang Qiang;Yang Yufeng;Zhang Xixiang;Liu Shuo;Jia Shaohui(PetroChina Pipeline R&D Center,Langfang,Hebei,065000;University of Science&Technology Beijing,Beijing,100083)

机构地区：[1]中国石油管道科技研究中心·油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室,河北廊坊065000 [2]北京科技大学,北京100083

出　　处：《石油化工安全环保技术》2020年第5期19-22,I0001,I0002,共6页Petrochemical Safety and Environmental Protection Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“油气管道及储运设施安全风险评价技术研究”,项目编号2016YFC0802104。

摘　　要：针对油气管道失效概率的计算问题,对比研究了目前常用的指标体系法、基于历史失效数据统计修正法和数学分析法,总结了各种方法存在的优缺点和实际应用中的注意事项。在此基础上结合指标体系法与基于历史失效数据的统计修正法,提出了一种将半定量评价结果中失效可能性数据转化为定量失效概率的修正系数,并在某管道运营公司人口密集型高后果区管段定量风险评价中进行了应用。该方法利用管道运营公司逐年积累的大量半定量评价数据,在一定程度上降低了重复收集数据的工作量,为后续定量风险评价的开展奠定了基础。Aiming at the calculation problem of failure probability of oil and gas pipelines,this paper compares and studies the commonly used index system method,statistical correction method based on historical failure data and mathematical analysis method.Then it summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of each method and points for attention in practical application.On this basis,a coefficient of correction that converts the failure probability data in the semi-quantitative evaluation results into a quantitative failure probability is proposed in combination with the index system method and statistical correction method based on historical failure data.Then it is applied to a quantitative risk assessment of the population intensive high-consequence area(HCA)in a pipeline operating company.The method is based on a large amount of semi-quantitative evaluation data accumulated by the pipeline operating company year by year.It can reduce the workload of repeated data collection to a certain extent,and lay a foundation for the subsequent development of quantitative risk evaluation.

关 键 词：油气管道 定量评价 修正因子 失效概率 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]