煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险性评估的折中妥协决策模型  

RISK ASSESSMENT OF GAS EXPLOSION IN COAL MINE BASED ON NORMAL COMPROMISE DECISION-MAKING MODEL

作　　者：王飞 王丹[1] 季海迪 WANG Fei;WANG Dan;JI Hai-di(School of Architecture,Nanyang Institute of Technology,Nanyang 473004,China)

机构地区：[1]南阳理工学院建筑学院,河南南阳473004

出　　处：《南阳理工学院学报》2020年第4期30-35,共6页Journal of Nanyang Institute of Technology

基　　金：河南省高等学校重点科研项目(20A560017);河南省科技攻关项目(202102310246)。

摘　　要：为有效预防与评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险态势,在综合集成煤矿瓦斯“安全事故致灾理论-人-机(物)-环境”等影响因素共同作用下,针对瓦斯爆炸危险性指标决策属性的模糊性、随机性及不确定性特征,从管理因素、电器安全、通风系统与瓦斯检测等层面构建煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险性决策系统。考虑决策指标属性的正态分布区间值相比均匀分布区间值的优越性,基于决策方案最大群体效益与最小化个体损失准则,构建了煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险性评估的折中妥协决策模型,可保证决策者采取有限理性心态得到可接受的折中妥协概率。实例研究表明:该决策模型集成决策者有限理性心态与决策信息正态分布优势,使评估结果更具可靠性与合理性。In order to effectively prevent and evaluate the dangerous situation of gas explosion in coal mines,the influence factors such as“Accident-induced disaster theory-Man-Machine(Material)-Environment”of coal mine gas are synthetically integrated in this paper.Considering the fuzzy,stochastic and uncertain characteristics of decision index attribute for gas explosion,the decision-making system of gas explosion hazard in coal mines is established on the basic of management factors,electrical safety,ventilation system and gas detection,etc.In view of the superiority of normal distribution interval value to uniform distribution.In this study,based on the criterion of maximizing group benefit and minimizing individual loss of decision-making scheme,a compromise decision-making model for risk assessment of gas explosion in coal mine is constructed,it guarantees that the decision maker can adopt the limited rational mentality to obtain acceptable compromise probability.The case study shows that the decision model integrates the advantages of decision maker’s bounded rational mentality and normal distribution of decision information,which makes the evaluation results more reliable and reasonable.

关 键 词：瓦斯爆炸 危险性评估 正态区间 折中妥协 决策模型 

分 类 号：TD712.7[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]