产业结构、人口结构与居民消费结构耦合协调的经济增长效应  

Economic Growth Effect of Coupling and Coordinating Industrial Structure,Population Structure and Residents'Consumption Structure

作　　者：王良虎 王钊[2] WANG Liang-hu;WANG Zhao

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院 [2]西南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济论坛》2020年第10期20-33,共14页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“农业经营新模式对增进与分享规模经济的作用机理研究”(71473205);重庆市重大决策咨询课题“重庆在推进长江经济带绿色发展中发挥示范作用研究”(2019ZB03)。

摘　　要：基于2005-2017年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,首先,运用耦合协调度模型测算了产业结构、人口结构、消费结构三系统耦合协调度;其次,通过实证分析了三系统耦合协调对经济增长三种效应的影响。研究结果表明,东部地区与东北地区三系统耦合协调度略高于中、西部地区,并且三系统耦合协调度整体呈逐年下降态势,而三系统耦合协调对经济增长三种效应的影响存在先抑制后促进作用。通过进一步分析得知,三系统耦合协调对东部地区部分省份及辽宁省经济增长的“绿色效应”影响已从“U”型曲线的左半边转变为右半边,而三系统耦合协调对经济增长的“水平效应”与“增长效应”的影响还未显现。Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2005 to 2017,firstly,the coupling coordination degree model is used to measure the coupling degree of industrial structure,population structure and consumption structure.Secondly,the three-system coupling is empirically analyzed.Coordination has three effects on economic growth.The results show that the coordination degree of the three systems in the eastern region and the northeast region is slightly higher than that in the central and western regions,and the coordination degree of the three systems is decreasing year by year,while the three systems are coupled and coordinated.The effects of the three effects of economic growth are first suppressed and then promoted.Through further analysis,it is known that the“green effect”of the three systems coupling coordination on the economic growth of some provinces in the eastern region and Liaoning Province has changed from the left half of the“U”curve to the right half,while the three systems are coupled to coordinate economic growth.The effects of“horizontal effect”and“growth effect”have not yet appeared.

关 键 词：产业结构 人口结构 居民消费结构 耦合协调 经济增长 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F126.1[社会学—人口学] C924.2