基于货币锚模型的人民币影响力空间分布特征分析——兼论东亚人民币区是否形成  

Analysis on Spatial Distribution Characteristics of RMB Influence Based on Currency Anchor Model——Also on the Formation of RMB Block in East Asia

作　　者：高明宇 李婧[2] GAO Ming-yu;LI Jing(Postdoctoral Research Station of Research Institute,the Peoples Bank of China,100033;School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,100070)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行金融研究所博士后科研流动站,100033 [2]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,100070

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2020年第10期119-128,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“新常态下人民币从外围货币向中心货币升级的路径研究”(17AJL016)阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：随着中国贸易地位的不断提升,越来越多的国家和地区开始将人民币作为锚定货币。本文基于官方计价职能视角,运用添加辅助回归的货币锚模型对全球183个国家和地区的货币锚进行分析,重点研究了人民币影响力的空间分布特征。结果表明:人民币已被39个经济体的货币当局作为锚货币,辐射区域涵盖五大洲,影响力集中于东亚、东南亚、西亚、非洲南部、拉丁美洲和大洋洲;美元辐射区域仍然稳固,欧元势力范围仅局限在欧洲和非洲部分国家,日元、英镑已退变为本土化货币。进一步地,依次对东亚8个经济体的月度汇率进行滚动回归,并结合面板数据分时段混合回归,研究显示:人民币在东亚的影响力呈现出显著的时变特征,稳固的人民币区尚未形成。With the continuous improvement of China’s trade status,more and more countries and regions begin to use RMB as anchor currency.Based on the perspective of official accounting function,this paper analyzes the monetary anchor of 183 countries and regions in the world by using the monetary anchor model with auxiliary regression,and focuses on the spatial distribution characteristics of RMB’s influence.The results show that:RMB has been used as anchor currency by monetary authorities of 39 economies,covering five continents,and its influence is concentrated in East Asia,Southeast Asia,West Asia,southern Africa,Latin America and Oceania.The U.S.dollar radiation region is still stable.The euro’s sphere of influence is limited to some countries in Europe and Africa.The Japanese yen and the pound sterling have degenerated into local currencies.Furthermore,we regress in turn the monthly exchange rates of the eight Asian economies,combine the rates with the panel data,and conduct the mixed regression regarding different periods.The research shows that the influence of RMB in East Asia shows significant time-varying characteristics,and a stable RMB block has not yet formed.

关 键 词：国际货币体系 人民币国际化 货币锚 官方计价职能 人民币区 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]