俄罗斯独立三十年:人口危机如影随形  

30 Years since the Independence of Russia:Trailed by the Demographic Crisis

作　　者：王晓菊[1] Wang Xiaoju

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界历史研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2020年第5期66-78,156,共14页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院世界历史研究所创新工程项目“俄罗斯东欧中亚:社会经济与历史文化”(2019~2021)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：独立后的俄罗斯在人口领域遭遇大逆袭。从1994年起,俄罗斯总人口连续缩减十多年,至2008年比苏联解体前减少550万。如果不将数百万外来移民和难民计算在内,那么这段时间内俄罗斯人口实际减少了千余万。2009年以来,随着经济形势的逐渐好转,加之鼓励生育等多项惠民政策的强有力支撑,俄罗斯人口状况显著改善,但其人口危机并未烟消云散。特别是俄乌冲突爆发后,俄罗斯因西方严厉制裁外部环境日趋紧张,至2017年人口状况再度恶化。人口危机给俄罗斯带来诸多负面影响,从各种迹象来考量,俄罗斯的“人口保卫战”势必是一场持久战。Russia suffered a major crisis in the demographic field after its independence.Since 1994,the total population of Russia has decreased for more than 10 years,and by 2008 it was 5.5 million less than that of the Soviet times.If millions of immigrants and refugees are not counted,the population has actually decreased by more than 10 million during this period.This situation has been changed since 2009 due to the gradual improvement of economic situation as well as a number of welfare policies such as encouraging childbirth.But Russia’s demographic crisis has not disappeared.After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,Russia’s external environment has become increasingly tense and its population situation has deteriorated again.The demographic crisis has brought many negative effects to Russia,including severe restrain on Russia’s normal development,big threats to national security,and strong stimulation of xenophobia.Considering all the various issues,the“battle of population”will be a long-term task for Russia.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 人口危机 普京 移民 母亲基金 

分 类 号：C924.512[社会学—人口学]