特朗普政权下的日美关系与“后安倍时代”日本对外战略走向——基于同盟安全困境视角的分析  

Japan-U.S.Relations under the Trump Administration and Japan’s Foreign Strategic Trends in the Post-Abe Era:An Analysis Based on the Theory of Alliance Security Dilemma

作　　者：初晓波[1] Chu Xiaobo

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《日本学刊》2020年第5期77-101,共25页Japanese Studies

摘　　要：特朗普执政之后,美国对外政策发生了剧烈变化,加上新冠肺炎疫情的重大影响,日美关系面临一系列挑战。本文运用格伦·斯奈德的同盟安全困境理论,结合这一时期日美同盟之间的复杂互动,分析日本对同盟框架中“抛弃”和“牵连”的担忧。前者体现在日美同盟建立时期的历史问题以及在同盟建立之后对朝鲜、韩国和中国三国的外交关系上;后者体现在对中国、俄罗斯和伊朗三国的外交关系上。为解决日美同盟存在的安全困境,日本需要在“抛弃”和“牵连”的成本和风险之间进行权衡。“后安倍时代”的日本面对包括新冠肺炎疫情发展、日美决策者关系等诸多不确定性,将在维持日美同盟稳定性的同时,追求对外战略的自主性,包括增强自己独立的国家军事实力、提高为美国提供合作的能力,在更广范围内塑造更为有利的地区和全球机制并增加话语权、降低自己与潜在对手冲突和紧张程度、寻求通过更广泛的稳定多边机制来减轻日美同盟对自己的捆绑,走一条更灵活的“亲美自主”的道路。In the context of the dramatic changes of American foreign policy since Trump took office,along with the significant impact of COVID-19 pandemic,Japan-U.S.relations are faced with a series of challenges.Based on Glen Snyder’s theory of alliance security dilemma,combined with the complex interaction between Japan and the U.S.during that period,the article analyzes Japan’s concerns for the“abandonment”and the“entrapment”within the framework of the U.S.-Japan alliance,with the former reflecting the historical problems during the establishment of the Japan-U.S.alliance as well as the relations with North Korea,South Korea and China since the establishment of the U.S.-Japan alliance,and the latter reflecting in the relations with China,Russia and Iran.In order to solve the security dilemma of Japan-U.S.alliance,Japan needs to weigh the costs and risks of the“abandonment”and the“entrapment”.In the post-Abe era,Japan faces with many uncertainties,including the spread of COVID-19 and the relations between Japanese and American policymakers.While maintaining the stability of the Japan-U.S.alliance,Japan attempts to pursue the autonomy in its foreign strategy,which includes promoting its independent national military strength,improving its capability to provide the cooperation for the U.S.,shaping more favorable regional and global mechanisms by promoting its discourse power on a broader scale,reducing the level of conflict and tension with potential rivals,seeking to reduce the binding of Japan-U.S.alliance on Japan through a broader stable multilateral mechanism and taking a more flexible path of“pro-American autonomy”.

关 键 词：特朗普 日美关系 日美同盟 同盟安全困境 对外战略 

分 类 号：D831.3[政治法律—政治学]