经济政策不确定性、债务短期化与财务脆弱性  

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Short Term Debt and Financial Fragility

作　　者：向古月 周先平[1] 刘仁芳 Xiang Guyue;Zhou Xianping;Liu Renfang(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《统计与决策》2020年第20期131-135,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(20AJY025);国家社会科学基金资助项目(11CJY009)。

摘　　要：文章基于2000—2017年中国A股上市公司面板数据,实证研究经济政策不确定性是否导致企业债务期限短期化,进而加剧财务脆弱性。结果显示:经济政策不确定性引起企业短期债务占比上升,债务期限结构呈现短期化趋势;债务短期化又导致企业财务风险上升,财务脆弱性增强;债务期限结构是经济政策不确定性影响企业财务脆弱性的中介变量。进一步研究表明,经济政策不确定性放大了债务短期化引发的财务脆弱性。利用工具变量法弱化内生性问题之后,上述结论仍然成立。Based on the panel data of China's A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2017,this paper empirically studies whether the economic policy uncertainty leads to the short-maturity of corporate debt,which further aggravates financial vulnerability.The study results are shown as follows:The economic policy uncertainty brings about the increase of the proportion of short-term debt of enterprises,and the debt maturity structure presents a short-term trend;the short-term debt also leads to the increase of financial risks and the enhancement of financial vulnerability;debt maturity structure is an intermediary variable that affects the financial vulnerability of enterprises due to economic policy uncertainty.Further research shows that economic policy uncertainty amplifies the financial vulnerability caused by short-maturity debt.The above conclusion is still valid after the endogeneity problem is weakened by use of the instrumental variable method.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 债务期限结构 财务脆弱性 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济] F275