利率并轨、风险溢价与货币政策传导  

Eliminating Dual-Track Interest Rates, Risk Premium, and Monetary Policy Transmission

作　　者：李宏瑾[1] Li Hongjin(People's Bank of China,Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究局

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2020年第5期35-44,共10页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“防范化解重大金融风险:宏观视角与政策应对”(项目编号:71850001);国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国金融体系的演化规律和变革管理”(项目编号:71733004)。

摘　　要：2019年以来,中国人民银行以贷款报价利率形成机制改革为突破口,在疏通货币政策传导机制和深化利率市场化方面迈出了重要一步,取得了一定的成效。文章首先讨论了利率双轨制、利率市场化和货币价格调控模式下,利率政策传导的具体机制,考虑期限溢价和信用风险溢价因素的Granger因果分析表明,我国短端利率向长期贷款利率的传导机制是畅通有效的。近年来,我国货币政策传导不畅,既与事实上的利率双轨制有关,也与内外经济金融环境变化而体制性矛盾更为突出所导致的风险溢价上升密不可分。文章对当前我国利率并轨及畅通货币政策传导机制存在的问题进行了深入分析,这对今后顺利实现深化利率市场化改革和货币价格调控方式转型目标、更好地畅通货币政策传导机制,具有重要的启示意义。In 2019, the PBC announced improvementsto the loan prime rate(LPR) mechanism designed to deepen the interest rate liberalization reform and straighten out market-based pass-through channels and has since achieved satisfactory policy effects. Firstly, this article discusses the interest rate pass-through mechanism under the dual-track interest rates as well as fully interest liberalization with the price-based monetary policy respectively. The Granger Causality test considering the factors of term premium and risk premium supports the effective interest rate pass-through from the short-term market rate to the longer lending rate. The decreasing effectiveness of monetary policy is due to the dual-track interest rates as well as the increasing risk premium inducing by the exaggerated institutional problems during the recent economic downturn. Then, this article analyzes the issues in the process of eliminating the dual-track interest rates as well as monetary policy transmission, which are beneficial to the deepening interest rate and price-based monetary policy reform and improving monetary policy effectiveness in the future.

关 键 词：利率双轨制 利率市场化 货币政策传导 货币价格调控 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]