系统性风险外溢视角下的定向调控与总量调控货币政策比较研究  

The Comparison of Targeted Regulatory Monetary Policy and Aggregate Regulatory Monetary Policy from the Perspective of Spillover Effect of Systemic Risks

作　　者：林朝颖 黄志刚[1,2] Lin Chaoying;Huang Zhigang(Fuzhou University,Fuzhou)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院 [2]福州大学福建省金融科技创新重点实验室

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2020年第5期45-57,120,共14页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“基于微观视角的货币政策组合非对称传导效应研究”(项目编号:71473039);福州大学科研启动经费“货币政策结构调整的理论与功效研究”(项目编号:GXRC201921)。

摘　　要：以精准、微调为特征的定向调控货币政策在优化信贷结构、补齐经济短板等方面受到诸多学者的肯定,然而其能否降低系统性风险尚未得证。文章从银行层面与企业层面比较定向调控与总量调控货币政策在系统性风险溢出机制以及风险溢出效应上的差异,结果发现在收益追逐机制下定向调控与总量调控货币政策都会导致银行向金融系统与实体经济系统的风险外溢,也会引发企业向银行的系统性风险回流,但定向调控货币政策下系统性风险外溢与风险回流的程度远不及总量调控货币政策,而且风险外溢的源头集中在获得定向降准政策优惠的银行。信贷渠道加速了定向降准所致的银行系统性风险溢出,但没有放大普遍降准下的银行系统性风险外溢。资产价格渠道则放大了定向降准与普遍降准下的银行系统性风险溢出机制,资产相对价值越低的银行系统性风险外溢越大。在经济衰退期普遍降准加剧了系统性风险溢出效应,而定向降准则对系统性风险外溢具有一定的缓冲作用。The targeted regulatory monetary policy with the characteristics of precision and micro-waving is widely acknowledged by many scholars for optimizing credit structure and remedying economic shortcomings.However,it remains unproven whether it can lower systemic risks. This paper compares the difference of the transmission mechanism and differential effects of monetary policy on systemic risk spillovers. The results are that targeted regulatory monetary policy and aggregate monetary policy cause systemic risk spillovers from banks to financial and economic systems,and the risk flows back from firms to banks after both monetary policies. By comparison,the magnitude of risk spillovers of targeted regulatory monetary policy is far less than aggregate regulatory monetary policy. The sources of risk spillover effect concentrate on the banks which gain the bonus of targeted easing monetary policy. The credit channel accelerates the systemic risk spillovers of banks after targeted easing monetary policy, but it doesn’t take effect for aggregate monetary policy.The asset price channel amplifies the systemic risk spillovers for both targeted regulatory monetary policy and aggregate monetary policy.The lower the asset price, the greater the systemic risk spillovers for banks.During a recession, aggregate regulatory monetary policy amplifies systemic risk spillovers,while the targeted regulatory monetary policy buffers risk spillovers.

关 键 词：定向调控 总量调控 系统性风险 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]