降费综合方案与机关事业单位养老保险财政支付压力预警  

The Comprehensive Scheme for Reducing Social Insurance Contribution Rates and Early Warning on Financial Payment Pressure for the Old-Age Insurance System for Staff of State Organs and Institutions

作　　者：杨再贵[1,2] 陈肖华 Yang Zaigui;Chen Xiaohua(Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学 [2]中央财经大学中国精算研究院社保精算研究中心 [3]中央财经大学中国精算研究院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2020年第5期68-78,共11页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“基于Lee-Carter模型的企业职工基本养老保险的财政风险预警指标研究”(项目编号:16BJY143);高等学校学科创新引智计划“保险风险分析与决策”(项目编号:B17050)。

摘　　要：2019年4月国务院办公厅印发的《降低社会保险费率综合方案》规定单位缴费率可降至16%,配套调整平均工资计算口径。这必然会影响机关事业单位养老保险的长期财务状况。根据《国务院关于机关事业单位工作人员养老保险制度改革的决定》和人社部、财政部关于落实国务院决定的通知,文章构建机关事业单位养老保险收支结余精算模型,分析了三种情景对财务状况的影响。文章计算降费综合方案下机关事业单位养老保险各年的财政支付压力,发现该方案虽能有效缓解财政支付压力,但该压力会自2046年起节节攀升,故有必要建立预警。最后,文章分别考察延迟退休、全面二孩、缴费率等因素对关键预警指标和预警年份区间的影响,并从进一步缓解机关事业单位养老保险财政支付压力的角度提出了政策建议。The Comprehensive Scheme for Reducing Social Insurance Contribution Rates stipulates that the unit contribution rate can be reduced to 16% and that the average salary calculation caliber will be adjusted. This will inevitably impact the long-term financial status of the old-age insurance system for staff of state organs and institutions. According to the State Council Decision on the Reform of Old-Age Insurance System for Staff of State Organs and Institutions and the Circular of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance on Implementing the State Council Decision, we develop actuarial models for the insurance contributions, benefit expenditures and balance of the insurance system, and compare the effects of three scenarios on its financial status. After calculating the financial payment pressure of the insurance system in each year under the comprehensive scheme, we find that the pressure will rise rapidly from 2046 though the scheme can effectively relieve it. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an early warning for the financial payment pressure. We examine the effects of the factors such as postponing retirement, thetwo-child policy for all, and thecontribution rate, on the key early warning indicator and the year interval of early warning. Based on the results, we offer some policy suggestions from the perspective of further relieving the financial payment pressure.

关 键 词：降费综合方案 机关事业单位 养老保险 财政支付压力 预警 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]