基于云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价  

Coal and gas outburst risk evaluation based on cloud model and D-S theory

作　　者：于丽雅 赵永芳 张凌云 陈光波 YU Liya;ZHAO Yongfang;ZHANG Lingyun;CHEN Guangbo(Safety Engineering Department, Shanxi Institute of Energy, Yuci 030600, China;Mining Engineering Department, Shanxi Institute of Energy, Yuci 030600, China;Mining Research Institute, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, Baotou 014010, China)

机构地区：[1]山西能源学院安全工程系,山西榆次030600 [2]山西能源学院矿业工程系,山西榆次030600 [3]内蒙古科技大学矿业研究院,内蒙古包头014010

出　　处：《工矿自动化》2020年第11期106-112,共7页Journal Of Mine Automation

基　　金：山西省青年科技研究基金项目(201801D221356);内蒙古科技大学创新基金项目(2019QDL-B33)。

摘　　要：针对现有煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价模型或方法难以兼顾评价指标的不确定性和模糊性、指标权重不合理等问题,构建了以煤层物理特性等4类因素为二级指标、以煤体瓦斯放散指标等24个因素为三级指标的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价指标体系,提出了基于云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价模型。通过云模型正向云发生器实现评价指标由定性到定量的转换,通过D-S理论的证据合成规则消除评价指标之间的冲突性,确定合理的指标权重。工程应用结果表明,基于云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价结果符合工程实际,准确度较高。In view of problems of existing coal and gas outburst risk evaluation models or methods that it is difficult to take into account the uncertainty and ambiguity of evaluation indicators,and the index weights are unreasonable,coal and gas outburst risk evaluation index system is constructed which takes 4 types of factors including coal seam physical properties as secondary indicators,and takes 24 factors including gas emission indicators as three-level indicators.Coal and gas outburst risk evaluation based on cloud model and D-S theory was proposed.Evaluation index is converted from qualitative to quantitative through forward cloud generator of cloud model,and the conflict between evaluation indexes is eliminated through evidence synthesis rule of D-S theory to determine reasonable index weights.Engineering application results show that the evaluation results of the coal and gas outburst risk evaluation based on cloud model and D-S theory are in line with engineering reality and have high accuracy.

关 键 词：煤与瓦斯突出 突出危险性评价 评价指标 指标权重 云模型 D-S理论 

分 类 号：TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]