2014~2019年广东省传染病自动预警系统运行效果评价  

Evaluation on operational effect of automatic early warning system for infectious diseases,Guangdong province,2014-2019

作　　者：代吉亚[1] 宋铁[1] 郭汝宁[1] 钟豪杰[1] 黄琼[1] 黄建华 DAI Ji-ya;SONG Tie;GUO Ru-ning;ZHONG Hao-jie;HUANG Qiong;HUANG Jian-hua(Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou,Guangdong,511430,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]广东省疾病预防控制中心,广东广州511430

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2020年第10期729-731,735,共4页Preventive Medicine Tribune

基　　金：广东省科技攻关课题(2019B111103001);广东省医学科学技术研究基金项目(C2020012)。

摘　　要：目的了解广东省传染病自动预警系统信号特征和运行效果,为预警系统的改进和完善提供参考。方法分析不同预警模型信号有效率的差异,采用Pearson相关分析广东省4种常见传染病年度发病数波动与预警信号及灵敏度的关系。结果广东省固定阈值法信号有效率为8.73%;时间模型法信号有效率为2.09%,其中移动百分位数法、累积和控制图法有效率差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。分析重点病种2014~2019年发病数和预警信号数的相关关系,其中手足口病(r=0.62,P>0.05)和登革热(r=0.49,P>0.05)均为不相关,显示发病数的波动未必会导致预警信号的同步变化;分析重点病种预警信号数和灵敏度的相关关系,仅其他感染性腹泻病呈正相关(r=0.88,P<0.05),说明预警信号数的增加并不能提升灵敏度。结论预警系统信号有效率较低,系统使用的移动百分位数法模型在疾病大流行后会因历史基线水平过高无法触发预警,建议及时调整阈值或修改预警模型。Objective To understand the signal characteristics and operational effects of the automatic early warning system for infectious diseases in Guangdong province,so as to provide a reference for the improvement of the early warning system.Methods Differences in signal efficiency by different early warning models were analyzed,and Pearson correlation method was used to analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of the annual incidence of 4common infectious diseases in Guangdong province and early-warning signals and sensitivity.Results The signal effective rate by the fixed threshold method in Guangdong province was 8.73%.The signal effective rate of the time model method was 2.09%,and the effective rate of the moving percentile method,cumulative and control chart method had no statistically significant difference(P>0.05).By analyzing the correlation between the incidence of common diseases and the number of warning signals from 2014to 2019,the results showed that hand,foot and mouth disease(r=0.62,P>0.05)and dengue fever(r=0.49,P>0.05)were not related,suggesting the fluctuation of the number of cases did not necessarily lead to the synchronous change of the early warning signals;by analyzing the correlation between the number of early warning signals and the sensitivity of common diseases,only other infectious diarrheal diseases were positively correlated(r=0.88,P<0.05),indicating the number of early warning signals increase did not increase sensitivity.Conclusion The signal efficiency of the early warning system is low.The mobile percentile method used by the system will not trigger early warning due to the high historical baseline level after a pandemic.It is recommended to adjust the threshold in time or modify the early warning model.

关 键 词：传染病 预警模型 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]