延迟退休政策的实施对学龄前儿童抚育的影响研究  

The Effect of Delayed Retirement on the Care of Preschool Children

作　　者：刘娜[1] 罗娟[1] LIU Na;LUO Juan(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering and Science,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《老龄科学研究》2020年第6期71-80,共10页Scientific Research on Aging

基　　金：国家社会科学基金教育学青年课题“流动人口随迁子女教育政策评估及对策研究”,课题批准号,CGA150154;上海工程技术大学研究生创新项目,课题批准号,19KY0325。

摘　　要：随着人们对延迟退休政策的讨论愈发热烈,延迟退休带来的影响也得到了更多的关注。探究渐进式延迟退休政策是否会带来家庭抚育幼儿的缺口。运用现有统计数据和通过人口阻滞增长模型预测的人口数据,对抚育群体和需要抚育的幼儿数量进行整体计算,并引入"抚育力""抚育比"等指标,将延迟退休前后的抚育比进行比较。研究发现:实施渐进式延迟退休政策后,每年由于延迟退休而减少的抚育力会被上一年或者上几年增加的退休人口所增补,最后由于延迟退休而减少的实际抚育力波动不大;同时,抚育比虽然整体有所降低,但下降幅度很小,不会造成较大的幼儿抚育缺口。在不考虑个别群体和个别家庭的情况下,从宏观角度出发,发现延迟退休并没有带来较大的幼儿家庭抚育缺口,但其所带来的对幼儿照料的影响仍然需要关注。将延迟退休政策的实施视为一个很好的契机,建立完善的0~4岁儿童照料体系,鼓励开办0~4岁幼儿辅助照料机构,打造生育友好型环境,为年轻父母在抚育幼儿方面提供社会支持,这是我国积极应对人口老龄化,以及从根本上改善未来人口年龄结构的重要举措。With the increasingly heated discussion on the policy of delayed retirement,the possible impact of this policy has also been noted.This paper aims to explore whether the progressive policy of postponed retirement would lead to a gap in child rearing for families.Using the existing statistical data and population data predicted by the population stagnation growth model,we calculated the number of care providers and children in need of care,introduced indicators such as"rearing capacity"and"rearing ratio",and then compared the rearing ratios before and after the policy was implemented.Results show that after the implementation of the policy,the annual reduction in care providers due to delayed retirement would be supplemented by the increase in the retired population in the previous year or several years,and the actual reduction would thus have a very little fluctuation.At the same time,although the rearing ratio would generally be lower,the small drop would not lead to a gap in child rearing.Regardless of specific groups and individual families,delayed retirement would not result in a big gap in child raising from a macro level.Still,its influence on child rearing calls for our attention.We need to take the implementation of the policy as a good opportunity,develop a child caring system for children aged 0 to 4 and encourage the establishment of care facilities for these young children.Building a birth-friendly environment and supporting young parents in child rearing are significant measures for China to cope with population aging and fundamentally improve the age structure of the future population.

关 键 词：延迟退休 隔代抚育 学龄前儿童照顾 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]